The theme for much of this week has been running backs. This is where my head is, as I struggle to figure out where to rank the top RBs. If I'm picking fourth overall, do I take Austin Ekeler if Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and CMC come off the board first? If I'm picking seventh, and Ekeler and and Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are gone, do I snag Nick Chubb, or even Bijan Robinson?
Based on your comments and private messages, it seems some/many of you are in the same boat. So, since I like to write about subjects that (figuratively speaking) keep me up at night, let's walk through some fallback options if we go zero-RB in the opening rounds. Specifically, are there RB tandems on some teams who are worth hedging once the top 25-30 guys are taken?
A few of you (or more) might wince at the thought of drafting RB teammates. It can feel defeatist. Barring a surprise, at least one won't be much of a fantasy contributor. And no, I'm not talking about CMC / Elijah Mitchell or Bijan / Tyler Allgeier. Instead, I want to focus on backfields with no clear winner, with the understanding that a winner might emerge. And if one does, it'll be fantasy gold.
Let's start with James Cook, whose RB30 ADP appears to be based on alternate reality. Or maybe I'm the one living in an alternate reality? We'll know for sure in a couple months. He's my RB13. Among the 169 expert rankings compiled by FantasyPros, no one is more bullish. 93% rank him 20th or worse. More than half rank him 28th or worse.
So when I draft in early September, if these numbers hold, I'll feel pretty confident about snagging him after the first 20 RBs are selected. His overall 79 ADP suggests seventh-round value. I'd feel comfortable reaching for him in the fifth, with the understand that I view him as no less than a fourth-round talent.
When targeting tandem RBs, I'm making notes on a spreadsheet during the draft. (And really, I'm taking notes regardless.) If the draft were tonight, and if I took Cook in the fourth, I'm jotting down "Damien Harris 43/153" and "Latavius Murray 69/279." These are reminders to target Harris a round or two ahead of his RB43 / overall 153 ADP, and the same for Murray at his ADP. In Buffalo, it remains unclear whether Harris's body is breaking down, or if he can be a strong #2. Regardless, I don't have to spend much to secure either one. I just need to remember when to pounce.
I'm not (yet) interested in Chicago's trio, because Khalil Herbert (RB34 / 102 overall ADP) is pretty pricey to me, especially with D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson looming. If all three Bears RBs are outside the top 45 positionally, I'd be comfortable hedging. But I don't want to be stuck with Herbert on his own, and there's a good chance the trendy Johnson will go several rounds early.
The same goes for Washington's backfield, where Bijan Robinson (RB35 ADP) and Antonio Gibson (RB36) have to contend with the *possibility* rookie Chris Rodriguez makes in-season noise, while also dealing with the inexperienced and questionably talented QB Sam Howell. I wouldn't mind taking Robinson/Gibson if they fell about five RB spots (or roughly one round). But the whole point of drafting tandems is to eventually wind up with at least one weekly starter. I'm not convinced that Robinson and Gibson will get it done on their own, and there's not enough pop in this offense to produce buckets of scoring opportunities.
Instead, let's look at Philly's RB corps. I've hyped them before. D'Andre Swift leads the way with an RB27 / overall 68 ADP. If we get can get him at his sixth-round price, the clouds will open up (in a good way) as we look ahead to enigmatic afterthought Rashaad Penny (40/127), and then the perennially underrated Kenneth Gainwell (53/188). Imagine investing a sixth rounder, plus (if we're reaching a bit) a ninth and 15th rounder to corner the market on the Eagles backfield. To me, that's a fantastic haul. One of those players should be a top-30 RB, and quite possibly two will finish in the top 40. We might even see one (Swift?) post top-20 numbers when healthy.
How about the Chiefs? Isiah Pacheco (29/72) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (58/203) form a terrific tandem. One of them assuredly will be a weekly fantasy starter. And while I've already shared why I'm fading Jerick McKinnon (39/120), I recognize some of you have great reasons to secure him. Whether it's a tandem or a trio, the investment should pay off.
Some of you also might like a mix of Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Devon Achane in Miami. Achane has the best ADP (41/128), making this group easy to draft at their price points. Imagine taking only one RB in the first nine rounds before locking in on the Dolphins' backfield.
There's a trend here. Many of the highest-powered offenses have three fantasy-relevant RBs, at least for now. These backfields should thin out in September, leaving us with two potential RB starters each week -- or ideally, one bell cow. Then we can use waivers and/or trades to secure another RB if needed.
This is an alternate approach to the somewhat traditional RB-RB or WR/TE-RB strategy in the opening rounds. We're instead focusing on other skill positions. But rather than shift randomly in the middle rounds to a "best-RB-available" approach, I like targeting teammates. And if we can walk away with tandems or even trios on two teams (doable this year, given their ADPs), we should have everything we need for a championship run.
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