I've got a Holy Grail spreadsheet that's taken years to assemble and analyze. It's more of an archeological dig, because it'll take many more years to sort through what it all means. So far, it's yielded more than 100 charts outlining -- pretty definitively -- trends that can't be ignored.
The data covers every preseason top-30 QB, top-50 RB, top-50 WR, top-30 TE, top-32 K, and all DSTs since 2012. It highlights which player was ranked where on the eve of Week 1, how many points they ended up scoring, and how many games they played. It breaks down production into four time periods, spanning the full regular season.
Perhaps two of my favorite charts are in the RB Excel tab. It pulls the 550 preseason top-50 running backs from 2012 thru 2022, sorted by age range: 21-22 years old, 23-24, 25-26, 27-28, and 29+. The chart displays how many points each age grouping averaged in the first quarter of the season, the second quarter, the third quarter, and the fourth quarter (with a formula to even out the "quarters" across each season).
The oldest running backs have, on average, peaked in the first quarter of the season. That's when they've racked up the most points. The same goes for the 27-28 year-olds, and the same goes for the 25-26 year-olds.
But RBs aged 23-24 peaked in the final stretch; that's when they averaged their highest point total. And 21-22 year-olds? They've been the slowest starters by far. And yet, no other age group has come close to netting their fantasy production in the third quarter, as well as the fourth quarter.
In other words, the second half of seasons has been a boon for 21-22 year-old RBs ranked in the preseason top 50.
And when we isolate for "RB1s" -- guys with top-12 RB ADPs -- that youngest age group has averaged more points in *each* quarter of the season than any other age group. Meanwhile, 29+ year-old top-12 RBs fare best in the first quarter of the season (though it's still not very good) before tanking the rest of the year.
Complementary charts bolster this data. For example, if we calculate points per game, we can observe that 21-22 year-olds average the fewest in the first quarter of the season, and then average the third-most in the second quarter, followed by the second-most in the third and fourth quarters. Meanwhile, the two oldest groups steadily decline from the first to the second to the third quarters before rebounding slightly down the stretch. They are easily the worst per-game performers in the second, third, and fourth quarters of seasons.
So which age group fares best in points per game? It's a tricky question. On the one hand, 25-26 year-olds lead the way in each of a season's four quarters. And this somewhat makes sense. Many of these guys are playing in the final year of their rookie contract, or are enduring a make-or-break fifth year option. They're technically in their prime.
And yet, that doesn't tell the whole story. In the first quarter of the season, they average the third-most games played among age groups, a mere 0.01 games behind their two younger counterparts. But the gap between them and 23-24 year-olds steadily widens in each of the next three quarters, and it widens even more in the next two quarters when compared to 21-22 year-olds. In that final quarter, 25-26 year-olds still lag 21-22 year-olds by 0.08 games.
Also, in case you're wondering, the two oldest age groups average the fewest games in the first quarter, though not by a lot. Yet this gap expands dramatically during the season, with a gap that exceeds 0.6 games in the final frame when compared to 21-22 year-olds.
Last night, Tyler Allgeier started over Bijan Robinson. Some might draw a reasonable conclusion that Robinson's bell-cow potential has taken a hit. But I don't see it that way. While Robinson could realistically begin the season in a timeshare, history shows that he's a good bet to play his best football as the year progresses. The same goes for Jahmyr Gibbs, who's battling for touches with veteran David Montgomery.
Meanwhile, the 29-year-old Derrick Henry is overpriced, at least from my perspective (and based on this research). I'm also fading 28-year-olds Alvin Kamara and James Conner at their ADPs, in the belief that they're moderate risks to fade by December.
As always, each player is unique. There are so many variables to consider, and it's enough to feel overwhelmed if our research is never-ending. But at some point, the data is compelling enough to act. And those charts showing the relationship between age and in-season production trends, as well as games played, are hard to ignore.
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