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There's an interesting fantasy shadow hanging over this first week of preseason games. Four marginally capable to very capable RBs remain unsigned: Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Zeke Elliott. The first two almost assuredly will find new homes, while the latter two might need an early- or midseason injury to a starter before a team's willing to bring them on board.
So guys like Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughan, and Malik Davis aren't just jostling for the handcuff role. Their preseason play might determine whether Dallas adds another running back. The same goes for the Colts, who are still in limbo with Jonathan Taylor, leaving Deon Jackson, rookie Evan Hull, Kenyan Drake, and Jason Huntley battling it out. If Hull, Drake, and Huntley continue to scuffle in Week 2, and if Taylor's return remains in doubt, then a Cook or Hunt signing could be massive in fantasy land.
And few franchises are more all-in in 2023 than the Chargers. I still believe Justin Herbert will break Peyton Manning's all-time single-season passing-yardage record, and I also believe L.A. (if they remain healthier than usual) can win the AFC West. But if Isaiah Spiller doesn't look poised for a Year 2 leap, then how much can this team trust Joshua Kelley with a coveted handcuff job behind the overworked Austin Ekeler? Could Cook or Hunt swoop in and become weekly fantasy starters? In an offense that should produce plenty of goal-line looks, could this be an ideal landing spot for Fournette or Zeke?
Like many (most?) of you, I love every part of the NFL season, from the start of free agency in March, on to the draft, and then into the preseason. At each stage, team fortunes rise and fall. And each stage yields a degree of uncertainty. And that uncertainty sometimes leads to a signing that transforms multiple players' fantasy values.
The 2014 Patriots come to mind. They won the Super Bowl that year. Entering the season, Stevan Ridley was their bell cow, with Shane Vereen operating as a terrific complement. Vereen was actually the preseason RB13 (ADP). This was an objectively fantastic and fantasy-friendly one-two punch.
But Ridley was knocked out for the season in Week 6. In Week 8, Bill Belichick installed Jonas Gray as the workhorse. In Week 11, Gray had one of the most famous fantasy RB performances in history. Then (reportedly) a team infraction sent him to the bench the following week, which magically coincided with the Pats signing the disgruntled LeGarrette Blount, who the Steelers had just released. Blount revived his career and his fantasy value in New England, and two years later he led the league with 18 rushing scores while finishing as the overall RB9.
This is the randomness of fantasy football. We encounter it constantly. The impacts are huge. And during this first week of the preseason, we're on the cusp of more randomness, hinging largely on how dozens of running backs fare, convincing teams that they do or don't need more firepower.
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