In the preseason, I want my top fantasy bargains--the guys I think are most underrated--to play just well enough to keep their foothold on the depth chart, but not *too* well. And I want my top fantasy busts to shine, so their values remain inflated.
Then there's everyone in between, which is where things get more complex. In two-QB / Superflex leagues, C.J. Stroud presumably is a must-draft rookie, in the belief the Texans have little to play for -- except their future. Davis Mills isn't the answer. It's either Stroud, or they start from scratch at quarterback. And given his talent, Stroud *should* eventually find his way as good or even great NFL QB.
But after last night, there will be more doubters, and for good reasons. His professional debut couldn't have gone much worse. His interception was painful. And so the team put Mills back in. And that carries an interesting narrative into next week's game against Miami, where Stroud has to show more. Because while the Texans' postseason odds are among the league's slimmest, they're not going to let their offensive centerpiece embarrass himself needlessly. Many rookie quarterbacks -- even those drafted early -- need time on the sidelines to hold a clipboard and observe, and ask questions, and practice, and develop the confidence that all great NFL quarterbacks have.
Stroud's ADPs heading into last night (QB26 / overall 189) presumably will drop in the coming days. Jimmy G. is at QB27 / overall 215. Mac Jones is at QB29 / overall 224. The insanely (truly, it's insane) undervalued Desmond Ridder is at QB33 / overall 282. These three quarterbacks and many more players might be poised to leapfrog Stroud.
And this is largely why preseason games are so important. Dramatic injuries and depth-chart shifts garner the biggest fantasy news. They're easy to talk about, because they're zero-sum assessments. Player A gets knocked out for the season, so Player B's value skyrockets. Player C goes from the clear-cut RB handcuff last year to a fringe RB3, so his value plummets.
The harder part is analyzing what Stroud's performance means for dynasty managers, for two-QB / Superflex managers, and even for 16+ team managers in leagues where every starting quarterback must be rostered. What is rock bottom for a rookie #2 overall draft pick? What is the probability (20%? 40%) that he'll be benched early this season? What is the probability (5%? 10%?) that scouts pegged him wrong? It happened with Zach Wilson (#2 pick). Baker Mayfield (#1) and Sam Darnold (#3) certainly never became fantasy stars, and probably never will.
In fact, in the last decade, more than half of the QBs taken with the first three picks have somewhat disappointed or dramatically disappointed. Based on recent history, the odds are stacked against Stroud. We have to weigh that with what we saw last night, with Houston's current rebuilding situation, with the 21-year-old's strengths and weaknesses, and so on. And strictly from a fantasy perspective, we need to watch his ADP movement and determine when the benefits of drafting him outweigh the risks.
That's the key. NFL GMs make countless mistakes. So do fantasy managers. It's not about getting everything right. It's about maximizing the impact of getting it right while minimizing the impact of getting it wrong.
And that brings us to tonight's slate, and one of my favorite fantasy bargains, dating back to the spring, when Aaron Rodgers followed in Brett Favre's footsteps, leaving Green Bay for the Jets . . . and opening the door for a former first-round pick who's been waiting for his turn.
I cannot identify any sensible reasons for Jordan Love to be ranked as low as he is, with a QB25 ADP and an overall ADP of 186, right behind Mike Gesicki. Most experts agree or mostly agree. As subscribers to my rankings know, I don't. He's my QB18, with an overall ranking of 143. In deep leagues or two-QB / Superflex leagues, I would draft him a couple rounds before his ADP and call it a win.
But all it takes is a well-executed preseason game to improve his market value. And actually, a viral video this week probably contributed to a small bump. Sometimes, that's the first churn of a runaway train. We see it every summer--guys whose values pop, and managers are left wondering how early they need to reach for him.
I want Love to remain below the radar. I want him to be the QB25 when I draft in September. I want him to look like a run-of-the-mill quarterback with no assurance of starting for the Packers beyond this season.
But none of us get to decide what happens. Our only power is in how we adjust to current realities. I know how early I'm willing to reach for Love. If the fantasy world catches on, then I'll need to recognize if/when he's too expensive.
For me, this is the joy and pain of fantasy football. Hundreds of players with values moving in varied directions, sometimes changing day to day. We know what we want the market to think about each one--or at least, that's my goal. Because that helps ensure emotion takes a backseat to analysis. And when it's my turn to draft, I'm maximizing value instead of stubbornly trying to prove an outdated point.
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