Who are the biggest pain-point WRs and TEs? Been staring at my rankings for about 45 minutes, shifting some guys around at nearly every tier. But after this first full slate of preseason games, I might reverse course. Because there are probably 30+ WRs and 15+ TEs with huge ranges of realistic outcomes.
At wideout, Cooper Kupp tops my list of "What are people thinking?", combined with "Oh, *that's* what people are thinking." He's one of my biggest WR busts, with an overall 23 ranking compared to an overall 5 ADP. Advancing age, injury history, and major questions surrounding the post-prime Matthew Stafford leave me baffled that so many people are bullish about Kupp. And yet, I get it. Few skill players are bigger offensive focal points. When healthy last year, he dominated, just like he did the year before. My fade recommendation either hits or misses big. When it comes to elite talents, the risks are obviously huge.
DJ Moore is another massive question mark. He was generally unstartable last year with Baker Mayfield under center. Then he hit 18+ points in four of six games with Sam Darnold starting. For me, Moore's success in 2023 hinges on his chemistry with Justin Fields. Chicago has one of the NFL's shallowest receiving corps. Fields doesn't need to throw much overall to feed Moore adequately. That's why I've got Moore as a big bargain compared to his overall 52 ADP. But . . . there's definite crash potential, which is why the market isn't higher on Moore.
Kupp and Moore are pain-point WRs, but I'm also committed to my ranking for each. That's not the case for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who I've got as slight bargains, only because I believe Russell Wilson will throw a lot more than expected. The fact is, I was completely wrong about all three of these Broncos last summer, so who the heck knows.
Gabe Davis is another one. If he continues ascending, he'll be the bargain I expect him to me. However, this remains a pretty packed offense, and Davis dropped nine passes last year on only 93 targets. A career-low 51.6% catch rate puts him on notice, at least from my perspective. Entering his all-important fourth season, he's playing for a long-term contract. I like that. At the same time, Buffalo won't necessarily be patient if he starts slow. They could be buyers before the trade deadline. I'm optimistic, and also wary.
And then there's Michael Thomas. Not much needs to be said. He actually flashed last season when healthy. "When healthy" is the key. I've got him as a half-round fade compared to an overall 96 ADP. If he falls to me at around 102 or later, I might pounce, because the Saints simply don't have much downfield firepower besides him and Chris Olave. Thomas should get plenty of looks . . . again, when healthy. He'll either be a pleasant surprise or an unsurprising bust, and that's enough to keep me guessing.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz confuses me. Loved him last summer. He looked very good at times, but wasn't always healthy. As a safety valve and red-zone target for a rookie QB, I like him heading into 2023. He's a solid bargain on my draft board. Maybe too much of a bargain. Basically, I think C.J. Stroud will lean on Schultz more than Trevor Lawrence will lean on the higher-priced Evan Engram. Is that insane? Possibly. And I keep second-guessing this valuation, but I still haven't moved him down.
And Cole Kmet is another TE I'm trying to make sense of. Is he more valuable this year than last year, when he finished respectably as the overall TE8? I'm not excited to get him, which is why he's my TE11 compared to a TE8 ADP. But the former second-round draft pick is a legit talent who served as Fields' #1 target last year. He actually thrived in that role, with Fields netting a 105.0 QB rating when looking his way. So is Kmet getting better in this offense, or will the addition of Moore cap his ceiling at around TE9/10?
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts about any of these guys, or other WRs/TEs you're trying to accurately value.
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