Monday's focus was on pain-point fantasy quarterbacks -- guys I'm struggling to value ahead of my draft. Today let's shift to running backs, which arguably is the hardest position to value each summer.
On the injury-recovery front, RBs like Breece Hall and Javonte Williams could justifiably land all over my draft board, especially if each team lands another RB this month. Williams' RB29 ADP (overall 76) probably has factored this in. But Hall's RB12 ADP (overall 30) is concerning. If you're drafting this week, consider that if the Jets sign Dalvin Cook or Kareem Hunt or someone comparably capable, it could signal New York's intention to ease Hall along. There's too much risk in redraft leagues.
But . . . I'm struggling with both of these players, in the belief that their ADPs will oscillate more than usual in the coming weeks. I can see a healthy Williams cracking the top 18 on 225+ touches, and it's possible that Hall -- who dominated last year before going down -- can crack the top 8 on 260+ touches. At the moment, both results might seem like pipe dreams. But if both guys look "ready" by late August, their stocks could skyrocket.
Rhamondre Stevenson is also a pain point. Last summer I pushed him as a bargain. Teammate Damien Harris was coming off a 15-TD campaign on 4.6 yards per carry. But after getting hurt in October, Harris continually faltered, and Stevenson ran away with the #1 job. A big part of me trusts that the 25-year-old Stevenson has at least one more great season in him, and perhaps two. In dynasty, he's a hard sell-high guy. But in redraft, he's a do-it-all RB with top-5 upside.
However, never underestimate Bill Belichick's seeming disdain for fantasy football. Rookie Pierre Strong (fourth-round pick) looked terrific with limited reps last year, and fellow rookie Kevin Harris (sixth round) was the next man up with Stevenson got hurt last December. And New England remains interested in adding a veteran RB. Stevenson deserves everything, but is owed nothing. We shouldn't be surprised if he's great, and we shouldn't be surprised if he fumbles twice in September and loses his bell-cow status (he fumbled four times in his last six games, coughing up one).
Honestly, I could name 40+ running backs who are driving me a bit batty. 13 rookie RBs could begin the season #1 or #2 on the depth chart. The Kenneth Walker - Zach Charbonnet combo has induced nightmares, and not the "hey, that was a pretty cool nightmare" kind of nightmare. My two favorite RB non-starters based on low ADPs and high ceilings are Chase Brown (Bengals) and Eric Gray (Giants). I want to reach for both of them. And yet, it's quite possible that neither guy nets more than 20 touches.
I'm also stuck on James Conner. Warned against him last summer, and that didn't work out so well, as Conner somehow mustered a top-20 campaign. As an injury-prone back in a potentially atrocious offense (for some of the season), his RB23 ADP appears to be unrealistic. At the same time, there are so few bell cows in this league, and Arizona doesn't have a capable backup. So if we're betting based on volume, Conner should be fine. Currently, I've got him as a bust, largely because of durability issues and negative game scripts. But I wish I felt more confident about it.
Another name to highlight -- and I brought him up a few days ago -- is Jerick McKinnon. Some of you shared that he helped you last year, which obviously is fantastic. I won't rehash what I wrote. But the big takeaway is that he's (a) still a talented and effective PPR asset, and (b) a 31-year-old who did most of his damage in 2022 with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined. Essentially, if you believe CEH will be relegated to a distant #3 role, then McKinnon should be primed for another fantasy-relevant campaign. Since I believe a healthy CEH will reassert himself in this offense, I'm fading McKinnon. But if CEH doesn't show well this month, then I might need to dramatically adjust their rankings.
If there's an RB you're struggling to make sense of, feel free to share.
---