Yesterday I referenced pain points. Today let's talk through the QBs who are driving us a bit nuts as we assess realistic projections. As always, feel free to share what you're thinking. There are no wrong answers, especially in the preseason.
Among quarterbacks I believe are underrated, Trevor Lawrence has me second-guessing myself. He has a QB8 ADP and overall 56 ADP. I've got him at 5/43. He was the overall QB7 last season, only a few points shy of being the QB5. And as discussed repeatedly on this page, I think he'll be elite for many years. The question is when he'll first get there.
I can't rationalize ranking him ahead of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen, and I'm all in on Justin Herbert going bonkers. Still, Lawrence showed glimpses of greatness last year. In six straight contests from Weeks 10 to 16, he averaged 23.5 fantasy points. His opposing defenses during that stretch included the sporadically solid Chiefs and Titans, the rapidly improving Lions, the Ravens (third-fewest points yielded), and the near-elite Cowboys and Jets.
With Calvin Ridley on board and a bolstered backfield, Lawrence has an exceptional collection of playmakers at his disposal. He could be one of the QB steals of the draft. But again, I can't figure out how to push him higher than QB5, even though I think he's legitimately 50-50 to finish in the top 4.
Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder are two other pain-point QBs for all the best reasons. I compete in a 14-team league. Their current ADPs are QB25 and QB33, respectively. It's inconceivable (as of today) that they'll be drafted. And yet, I don't want an opponent to draft either one, because I'm convinced both will be top-20 quarterbacks. That would make both streamer-worthy, especially during bye weeks.
So do I snag both at the end of my draft and stash them on the bench, hoping (believing?) they'll become useful trade fodder? Or by drafting them, am I wasting a couple valuable opportunities to stock up on high-ceiling RB handcuffs? Or . . . if I don't get a top-5 QB, do I commit to RB/WR/TE in the first 12 rounds, and then select Love and Ridder in the belief that at least one will be startable each week? Is getting an extra impact RB/WR/TE in an early round a good trade-off?
That's what's keeping me up at night (not really, but go with it). Three quarterbacks I believe will comfortably exceed expectations, and selfishly, I don't want my opponents to get any of them. The question is how I should approach it.
As for overrated QBs who are giving me heartburn, Lamar Jackson is near the top of the list. I was down on him last summer and remain down on him this summer, despite a QB4 ADP that screams "guaranteed greatness."
Of course Jackson is great. He's more than great. When healthy. That's the key. And after two consecutive injury-plagued campaigns and a sharp downtick in carries per game last year, I'm wondering if the Ravens want him to run less. And if that happens, I can't envision him exceeding or even coming close to meeting expectations.
Yes, he has a bolstered receiving corps. But let's break it down. Rashod Bateman has struggled with injuries. The aging, post-prime OBJ hasn't played in 18 months. Zay Flowers is a rookie who might need time to acclimate. And yeah, there's Mark Andrews. Fantastic. But for a guy who throws less than just about every other QB, can Jackson take his passing game to the next level?
I'm also somewhat down on Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones. Both guys obviously were money last year, finishing as the QB8 and QB9, respectively. But the 35-year-old Cousins worked harder than ever, easily averaging the fewest fantasy points per pass attempt since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. Do I trust that he'll keep slinging it? Or is he a seemingly obvious regression candidate?
And Jones was playing for a new contract and had a healthy Saquon Barkley. Saquon's playing on a one-year contract. A lot can be written on that, and I might dive in later this week. For now, the magic of Jones -- after three years of looking like a long-term NFL backup -- has a lot to do with his talent and his brilliant coaching staff. But is it replicable? He's either a steal or a bust, and while I'm leaning toward bust, it's still eating me up in side (not really, but . . .).
If there's a QB you're struggling to make sense of, give a shout.
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