Today and tomorrow, I want to focus on the risks of overworked running backs, drawing from research I've been conducting (and sharing on this page) for years. For many of you, this is old news. But it's the kind of old news that never gets old.
When CMC had 403 carries in 2019, and then mustered only three games in 2020, it was clear that my warnings about overworked RBs needed data to back up my theory. Hunches take us only so far. So I documented every RB who'd earned at least 350 touches in a season, going back to the beginning of the NFL. How many games did the play the next season? How many fantasy points per game did they rack up? What might this tell us about rolling the dice on an RB coming off an excessively high-volume campaign?
The results were objectively staggering. There was no wiggle room. So I put my money where my mouth was that next summer, warning readers not to draft Dalvin Cook anywhere near his RB2 ADP, and not to draft Derrick Henry anywhere near his RB4 ADP, because Cook had just collected 356 touches the year before, while Henry had 397. It wasn't just a simple blog post. I tweeted it out repeatedly. Those of you who messaged me privately ("Really? But Henry is built differently!") got the same basic response.
Essentially, based on historical outcomes, Cook and Henry had a roughly 75% chance of a fantasy-point regression, and that the overall average next-season outcome was a roughly 22% regression.
As it turned out, Cook's production dropped 39%, while Henry's (because of his injury, not because of poor play) dropped 42%. However, injuries are part of it. Many overworked running backs suffered serious injuries the following season. And while some of you were happy to have a dominant Henry for half the season, drafting an early first-rounder who's finished well before the fantasy playoffs . . . well, it hurts. And I know, because I won the title in my league that year against an opponent who drafted Henry.
Heading into last year, I expanded the research to include all players who'd accrued 350+ touches in a *full* season -- including the playoffs. Three running backs were coming off 350+ touch seasons: Jonathan Taylor (RB1 ADP), Najee Harris (RB5 ADP), and Joe Mixon (RB7 ADP). All three stumbled to varying degrees. The data held.
The findings also can be sliced in interesting ways. Although most are significantly impacted, younger RBs average a smaller regression than much older RBs. And higher-volume seasons (e.g. 400+ carries vs., say, 350-375) net worse results.
So that brings us to this summer, and the pressure I feel to honor the data and warn against the three RBs who had 350+ touches last season: Saquon Barkley (377 touches), CMC (381), Josh Jacobs (381), and Henry (382). As subscribers to my rankings know, I've been down on Barkley and Jacobs all summer. And yesterday I finally decided to drop Henry comfortably below his ADP.
But McCaffrey remains my RB1, on par with his ADP. Maybe it's because these results play out as expected about three-quarters of the time, so I've talked myself into giving CMC the benefit of the doubt. And yet, of the 13 RBs who've accrued 350+ touches since 2017, 12 have regressed the following season, with a net average decline of 33%.
In the coming weeks, I'm going to continue assessing CMC. Will the Niners continue to manage his reps for the long season to come? Is he the "safest" high-ceiling option at this position?
As for Saquon, Jacobs, and Henry, my rankings are pretty much set. This is where historical data has to supersede emotion. Based on the probabilities, all three are massive regression risks, and I'll gladly let an opponent take that risk.
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