It seemed odd (at least to me) to see Russell Wilson on the field last night. Went through the archives and found that he last appeared in a Week 1 preseason game in 2018, when he connected on four of five throws for 80 yards and a score. He also ran twice for 14 yards. He was coming off a campaign where he led the league in TD passes. Vintage Russ.
Unlike five years ago, last night's preseason opener wasn't a tune-up. It was the first of many starts in what *might* be Wilson's final year as an NFL starter. I know that seems strange. But it's possible. Denver has an expensive out on his massive contract after this season. Yet it's not impossibly expensive. It'll hurt, and it'll hurt more if they stick with a declining, aging quarterback.
This doesn't mean Wilson is finished. Last summer I wrongly insisted that he'd rebound. When he didn't, I started gathering and analyzing data to try to make sense of it. Yes, we could blame the play-calling and a disastrously ineffective and/or injured backfield. But Wilson has faced adversity and thrived. Last year he seemed like a different player.
It's not that he was awful. He was the QB17 in fantasy points per game, ahead of guys like Jimmy G., Derek Carr, and Aaron Rodgers. He somehow had more 20+ fantasy-point performances than Carr, Rodgers, and Tom Brady *combined* while battling his fair share of injuries.
But he'll turn 35 in November. Most quarterbacks (not some of the all-time elites, but most others), begin declining around their mid-30s. However, the aging process seems to take hold much sooner for dual-threat QBs.
In this respect, Randall Cunningham was the exception, delivering his final great campaign at age 35. And yet, injuries and a brief retirement had limited him to 47 games in his previous six seasons. He essentially played the equivalent of three seasons across six years, beginning at age 28. Then at 35 years old, he finally enjoyed a pretty healthy season with the 15-1 Vikings, throwing to Randy Moss and Chris Carter. It was a perfect storm of resurgence, and it turned out to be his final notable output before retiring after three more forgettable years.
Another highly mobile and successful quarterback, Michael Vick, was suspended for two seasons at age 26. He then returned after a nearly three-year layoff, attempting only 13 passes as a backup. He finally earned another shot to start at age 30, and proceeded to finish second in Offensive Player of the Year balloting. By age 32, he wasn't nearly the same player, and his body continued to break down to the point where his career was all-but-over by age 33 (though he continued to scuffle for a couple more years).
Steve McNair (31 years old) and Cam Newton (30) also experienced sudden declines during what was supposed to be their prime. Donovan McNabb was highly mobile in his early years, endured injuries, started running much less, and remained relevant until 2010, when he was 33 going on 34.
And yes, there are some exceptions. But many of those exceptions are based on unique circumstances. By the time Steve Young reached his age-30 campaign, he'd started only 29 regular season NFL games. His delayed prime arguably was a function of his delayed ascension as a weekly starter.
While writing this, I see that Wilson just connected with Jerry Jeudy on a touchdown pass. Great stuff. Also, context is key. Denver's starting receivers remained out there with Wilson for much longer than we'd typically see in a Week 1 preseason matchup. He needed four drives to manufacture 93 passing yards, likely against a mish-mash of first- and second-string defenders on one of the league's worst teams.
Fantasy managers are facing a fascinating (and possibly frustrating) decision when it comes to Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and maybe even Marvin Mims. History shows that mobile QBs hit a wall by their early-to-mid 30s. Either last year was an outlier, or it's a sign of things to come. And when we see Sean Payton keep his offensive starters in for that long, we have to take notice. Because these are experienced playmakers. They're veterans. They don't need to be out there, especially after recently losing Tim Patrick (again) to a season-ending injury.
But perhaps Payton doesn't like what he's seeing in practice. Maybe he's sizing up whether Wilson gives this team their best chance to win. Jarrett Stidham waits in the wings. We've watched this movie before when it starred Cam, Vick, and nearly every other (formerly) mobile QB who transformed from brilliant to finished, seemingly overnight. Wilson must defy logic and history to return to greatness, or even goodness. It's doable, and it's also a precarious fantasy situation.
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