Before discussing more research, a quick reminder that if you want to subscribe to my FF4W Top 310 (the number keeps growing) PPR Rankings, sign up through any of the four links at the bottom of this column. As always, it's pay-what-you-want. If you're new to this and are wary of donating to a random blogger, do a dollar or 50 cents or a penny or whatever. It honestly doesn't matter. I mean, it does. I've got kids, and the Tooth Fairy ain't cheap.
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OK, there's some research I started in 2017, but haven't touched in two years. I'm committed to getting caught up this season, and will report back on what I find. But there's still four years of data -- 2017 to 2020 -- and it's worth discussing this morning.
Offensive lines are tricky. For many years, I didn't discuss o-lines at all. My thinking was that others study centers and guards and tackles much more than I do, so I'll stick with skill players and team defenses (and yes, kickers).
But six years ago, I decided to begin testing a hypothesis that offenses perform better when playing behind great o-lines versus those who play behind bad o-lines. Nothing crazy. Seemed pretty obvious.
And while I generally refrain from mentioning other fantasy football organizations (so as not to appear biased), I decided that Pro Football Focus had the reputation and deliverables to make this study viable.
So I began cataloguing their final preseason team o-line rankings, and then compared these rankings to the offensive yards each team collected that regular season. Four sets of data later (2017-2020), I had a solid sample size.
The offensive lines are grouped in six categories, based on PFF's final preseason rankings: top 5, top 6-10, top 11-15, top 16-20, top 21-26, and top 27-32. As you can see, the first four groups have five teams each, while the last two have six teams each. Not a big deal, because the data going into this analysis is averaged out by team.
It turns out that teams with top-5 preseason o-lines averaged 5,684 offensive yards. The top 6-10 and 11-15 groups averaged slightly less (5,528 and 5,658, respectively). But somehow, the top 16-20 and 21-26 groups averaged slightly more (5,696 and 5,687, respectively). Meanwhile, the worst group (top 27-32) came in distant last with an average 5,229 yards.
I hear what some of you are thinking: Maybe PFF is really bad at predicting o-line prowess. It's a fair point. To do this right, I need to do more digging and perhaps assemble a composite of o-line rankings from different organizations.
But . . . there's another part of this study. Sometimes o-line rankings are relative. An RB playing behind a league-worst line might find more success if he's running behind a half-decent o-line the following year. A QB who's accustomed to elite pass protection might struggle the next season if his line regresses to merely "average."
Comparing PFF's final preseason rankings year-to-year, I created four categories: o-lines whose rankings improved by 0-7 spots (e.g. ranked 20th in 2018, and then ranked 17th in 2019), improved by 8+ spots, worsened by 1-7 spots, and worsened by 8+ spots.
How much do ranking shifts matter? Apparently, much more than single-year rankings. Teams that jumped 8+ spots led the way, averaging 5,817 offensive yards. In fact, they averaged the most yards in each year studied. Teams that improved 0-7 spots netted 5,619 offensive yards, good for second place. Teams that dropped 1-7 spots averaged 5,520 offensive yards. And the worst movers -- teams that dropped 8+ spots year-over-year -- finished last with an average of 5,397 yards.
Yes, this is very preliminary research. I need to add 2021 and 2022 to the mix, and would also like to break it out by rushing yards versus passing yards. And as mentioned above, it would be helpful to get a collection of rankings (like I do with FantasyPros' composite of ADPs).
Still, I'm not going to bury this research. Instead, it's one of many dozens of factors contributing to my rankings. For example, the latest PFF o-line rankings list the Bucs at #14, compared to #4 last summer. This dramatic drop has influenced my thinking on Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White, both of whom are fades relative to their ADPs. The Rams have dropped 17 spots. Enough said.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are up 18 spots, reinforcing why I'm targeting Najee Harris ahead of his ADP. And the Falcons are up 21 spots -- almost unheard of in the history of PFF rankings. It's one of many reasons why I view Desmond Ridder, Tyler Allgeier, and Drake London as screaming bargains.
I'm often wrong, but never random. There's some compelling, actionable evidence in these o-line rankings. More research needs to be done. In the meantime, I'm owning the results for better or worse, and I'm urging readers to consider doing the same.
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