Yesterday I walked through a mock 12-team PPR draft based on picking #1 overall. Today let's try it from the #6 spot. I've heard from many of you who are picking in the middle of the first round. Historically it's seemed like a pretty tough spot for some managers, though it actually carries risks and rewards similar to other first-round spots. Last year, for example, Justin Jefferson had an overall 6 ADP, and Travis Kelce turned out to be a minor steal at his 14 ADP. Davante Adams (11 ADP) and Stefon Diggs (12 ADP) finished the year as the WR3 and WR4, respectively.
The goal in the middle of the first round is no different picking at the beginning or the end: find an elite positional talent. That's it.
There's a tendency to fade elite quarterbacks until the second or even third round. It's group-think at its finest. If managers silently agree not to start moving on QBs until their ADPs (Josh Allen was the WR1 last preseason with an overall 22 ADP), then it enables everyone or nearly everyone to load up on other key positions in the first couple rounds.
But it doesn't have to be that way. If you could see the future and *know* Jalen Hurts will hit 400+ points this season, would you draft him in the first round? I definitely would. No hesitation. In a league where a small handful of QBs clear 300 points, securing an uber-elite positional player with a massive weekly edge over nearly every other quarterback is too good to pass up.
That's why drafting requires flexibility. If someone goes early on Patrick Mahomes, you better believe I'll queue up Jalen Hurts when it comes to me, even if it's early in the second round. Because I *believe* Hurts will dominate beyond that of any other player I could realistically get in the second round.
With all this in mind, let's do another 18-round mock draft, starting this time at the #6 position. Bye weeks are in parentheses. Once again, I'll use current player ADPs to determine who's remaining on the board when each selection comes back to me.
Round 1 -- WR AJ Brown (10) -- Immediately I'm in a bind. I've got AJ Brown as the WR3 in my rankings, while Tyreek Hill is my WR5. If this were a real draft, I might ("might") roll the dice with Tyreek and then hope Brown (overall 14 ADP) falls to me in round 2. But that also might be a pipe dream. I'm going with my favorite underrated elite wideout.
Round 2 -- QB Jalen Hurts (10) -- I warned you this would happen. Patrick Mahomes (overall 15 ADP) is gone at the start of the second round. The best available (based on ADP) are Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs. But Hurts is the best available on my draft board, and I love the Hurts-Brown stack as a weekly centerpiece to my lineup.
Round 3 -- RB Aaron Jones (6) -- With pick #30, the best available (based on ADP) are Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, DJ Metcalf, and Joe Mixon. But despite his muted market value, Aaron Jones is the best available on my rankings. No hesitation. Trust the rankings, and trust the Packers' underrated offense.
Round 4 -- RB Kenneth Walker (5) -- I have the 43rd pick, and am crushed to see T.J. Hockenson was snagged at #42. I could have rigged this mock draft by picking seventh. Ugh, why don't I pre-plan these things? Oh right, it's because not getting what I want is more constructive than "picking the perfect lineup." Although Keenan Allen is still available, and he's a few spots ahead of Kenneth Walker on my board, I'd prefer Walker given the early development of this roster, and I make a note to pick up Zach Charbonnet a round or two early.
Round 5 -- TE Dallas Goedert (10) -- With pick #54, I'm eyeing Dallas Goedert (overall 60 ADP) and Kyle Pitts (overall 58 ADP). Both are slight bargains in my rankings. Both have solid top-5 upside. And I've ranked Goedert slightly ahead of Pitts. Is that enough to take him? That, and the mega-stack of Hurts-Brown. If the Eagles' offense is as good as advertised, this will work out great. Yes, there's added risk if Hurts is injured. But I can't draft based on fear.
Round 6 -- WR Drake London (11) -- With pick #67, Drake London has my attention. He's #24 on my draft board. It's a no-brainer.
Round 7 -- RB James Cook (13) -- Life is good, or at least it seems that way before the games actually start. James Cook is another one of my massive bargains. His overall ADP happens to be 78, which is where I'm picking. He's #39 on my board. In the real world, he'd probably be gone by now, because his value is trending upward. But in this mock, he's a lucky steal.
Round 8 -- RB Zach Charbonnet (5) -- At pick #91, the corresponding ADP shows . . . Justin Tucker. I'll pass. Instead, I need to snag Kenneth Walker's glorified handcuff. While Zach Charbonnet's 111 ADP means I can wait until the ninth round, I want to be realistic about this. Drafting Walker means I need to get Charbonnet, and if this were a real draft, I wouldn't try to cut it too close.
Round 9 -- WR Gabe Davis (13) -- At #102, I'm staring at bargain Gabe Davis and the Eagles DST. Love them both. The Eagles might top out at 190 points if things break nearly perfectly, giving them a roughly 3-4 point weekly advantage over a bunch of startable DSTs. But I'm high on Davis for a host of reasons, and I'm not deep enough at WR to wait much longer for a potentially strong #3. He was the WR35 last season, with plenty of room to crack to the top 28. I need him more than I need the Eagles.
Round 10 -- WR Jameson Williams (9) -- Make a note that the ADP range from 115 to about 140 is a rough patch. It's loaded with DSTs and risky skill players, along with a bunch of QBs coming off surprisingly good seasons, but who probably won't replicate that success. There are many ways things could go sideways these next two rounds. I've decided to bypass my rankings just a bit and select the talented Jameson Williams, who I've got as a sizable bargain. Yes, he's looked awful, and his career couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. But a thin Lions wideout corps helps. He'll get on track. He has to.
Round 11 -- RB Tyler Allgeier (11) -- With pick #126, I'll snag Tyler Allgeier His overall ADP is 157. In a real draft, whoever took Bijan Robinson might have taken Allgeier before now. Or maybe s/he's waiting 'til the 12th round (cutting it too close). Allgeier becomes a great bargaining chip in trade discussions, and he also has stand-alone value as a proven weekly asset, even with Robinson in the fold.
Round 12 -- RB Elijah Mitchell (9) -- There's no need to take a backup QB, since plenty of decent streamers should be available if needed. The same goes for TEs. Why burn a valuable bench spot on a guy I might start only once? So with the 139th selection, I'll roll with another glorified handcuff. Still thin at WR. But I'll figure that out in the next couple rounds.
Round 13 -- RB Jaylen Warren (6) -- Pick #150 nets me my third consecutive glorified handcuff, and fourth of the draft. Longtime readers/subscribers know I like to stash plenty of RB capital on my bench. The odds are good that at least one will start multiple games. Sometimes several do. Jaylen Warren is a proven commodity in a run-friendly offense.
Rounds 14 and 15 -- WR Romeo Doubs (6) and RB Kenneth Gainwell (10) -- Pick #'s 163 and 175 help round out my roster. It was a tough call between Doubs and Tank Bigsby. But I like Doubs finishing in the top 50 (he's my WR44, compared to an RB60 ADP), giving me needed depth at the start of the season. And Gainwell has been a favored RB bargain all summer, and he's playing alongside two injury-prone RBs.
Rounds 16 and 17 -- RB Roschon Johnson (13) and K Cameron Dicker (5) -- Roschon Johnson has been steadily growing on me, and is now a huge bargain compared to his ADP. And just like yesterday, I'm bullish about a kicker who connected on 21 of 22 field-goal attempts as a rookie last year. The Chargers' offense could be incredible, and Cameron Dicker should reap the rewards.
Round 18 -- DST Detroit Lions -- Once again, my favorite DST bargain. If I don't pursue the Eagles early, I'll fall back on the Lions.
To recap, this roster has similarities to yesterday's, with several overlapping players. But unlike yesterday, I found the right spots to land an elite QB and near-elite TE without overly compromising my RB/WR corps. Yes, my WR group is thin, and that would need to be addressed if one of my starters missed significant time. But massive RB depth could equate to starting an RB in my flex most weeks, meaning I might not need to start more than two WRs.
Still, it's not ideal, and it's the price to pay for snagging Goedert. I could have taken Christian Watson, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, or someone similarly priced. But I'll live with that decision in Mock World.
Tomorrow I'll do one more, this time picking from the #12 spot.
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