On Monday I walked through a mock 12-team PPR draft based on picking #1 overall. Then yesterday covered how a draft might play out starting at #6 overall. Today let's try it from the #12 spot.
If you view this position through a pessimistic lens, you might see it as getting only two players in the first 35 picks. But an optimist might see it as getting four players in the first 37 picks. And that latter mindset is how I want to approach this mock draft. Because if you're picking at the end of the first round, you have a golden opportunity to land two elite-upside guys at the first turn, followed by at least one elite-upside guy at the next turn.
Keep that mind as we kick off this final mock of the summer.
As always, this will be an 18-rounder. Bye weeks are in parentheses. And I'll use current player ADPs to determine who's remaining on the board when each selection comes back to me. In a real draft, we might need to reach a round or two earlier for some of these players. But for now, ADP gives us a pretty good baseline to work from.
Rounds 1 and 2 -- WR AJ Brown (10) and QB Jalen Hurts (10) -- At the first turn, smart money might be on Nick Chubb. But for reasons explained last month, I'm fading him at his ADP. Instead, I'm returning to the stack I invested in yesterday. Hurts will be gone when it comes back to me in the third. I feel comfortable with this approach, even if conventional wisdom suggests waiting on a QB.
Rounds 3 and 4 -- RB Aaron Jones (6) and TE T.J. Hockenson (13) -- Not sure I've ever started a draft with a QB, RB, WR, and TE. But this investment makes sense at the 3-4 turn. Although nothing's guaranteed, Jones and Hock have elite potential. I can relax a bit heading into the next turn.
Rounds 5 and 6 -- RB Alexander Mattison (13) and Drake London (11) -- Mattison's and London's ADPs are 66 and 67, respectively. If I can get them with picks 60 and 61 in a real draft, I'd be thrilled. Subscribers know I've ranked James Cook five spots ahead of Mattison. But in a real draft, I'd hope that Cook (78 ADP) falls to me in the 7th. Clearly a longshot, though I'd probably take the gamble.
Rounds 7 and 8 -- RB AJ Dillon (6) and WR Gabe Davis (13) -- Dillon is a no-brainer at this spot. I need Aaron Jones's glorified handcuff, plain and simple. And although I'm reaching for Davis a round-and-a-half early (based on ADP), I've assigned him sixth-round value on my draft board. It's probably now or never to snag him, and I want him on my roster.
Rounds 9 and 10 -- WR Kadarius Toney (10) and WR Skyy Moore (10) -- In case it's not obvious, none of this is pre-planned. The Eagles DST (108 ADP) looks ideal with the #108 pick. But I'm suddenly drawn to a somewhat unusual WR-WR stack. There's a good chance that Toney or Moore will operate as Patrick Mahomes' #1 wideout. I'm burning two middle-round picks in the hope there's eventually a clear winner.
Rounds 11 and 12 -- RB Tyler Allgeier (11) and RB Elijah Mitchell (9) -- Just like yesterday, I'm reaching early for Allgeier and Mitchell. Both *might* have stand-alone value, and both could be top-14 fantasy RBs if Bijan Robinson and CMC miss time.
Rounds 13 and 14 -- RB Jaylen Warren (6) and Tank Bigsby (9) -- Same deal, this time with picks 156 and 157. Warren and Bigsby are on the cusp of weekly fantasy relevance, even if it's only for a couple of weeks. Low risk, high reward.
Rounds 15 and 16 -- RB Kenneth Gainwell (10) and RB Roschon Johnson (13) -- Hit your targets. This is one of the keys to drafting. I know the guys I want, and sometimes I time it right (other times, admittedly, I don't). Gainwell and Johnson are in crowded backfields, but both of them could eventually emerge as starters.
Rounds 17 and 18 -- K Cameron Dicker (5) and DST Detroit Lions -- More of the same. Dicker and Detroit are my fall-back options at kicker and DST. I had a chance to land Jake Elliott earlier and passed; the same goes for the Eagles DST. I'm fairly confident Dicker (K12 ADP) and Detroit (DST20 ADP) will be here at the final turn of real drafts.
To recap, this roster contains a lot of the same players from Monday (picking #1 overall), and possibly even more similarities to yesterday's (picking #6). Because it doesn't matter where we pick from. I mean, it does, but more in the early rounds. The deeper we get into a draft, the easier it is to snag our top bargains, regardless of our positioning.
---