We've entered the brunt of fantasy draft season. Have heard from a bunch of you who drafted this past weekend. With a little over two weeks to go 'til Week 1, let's spend the next three days doing the kind of prep work that often pays dividends: mock drafting.
As I've said before, rankings are two-dimensional solutions to three-dimensional challenges. When we enter the draft room, we might feel prepared with our rankings in-hand. But rankings alone aren't enough. We need to build a strategy. If we take Player A in round 1, who should we be targeting in round 2? If we've got Player H as a major bargain despite a 100 ADP, should we take him around the 70th-80th pick, or should we roll the dice and see if we can get him with the 90th-100th pick?
It's theory vs. practice. Rankings are the theory. Drafting is the practice. And before we make our first pick, we need to be able to bridge theory and practice with a logical strategy.
So on Day 1 of this project, I'm mock drafting (18 rounds) based on having the #1 overall pick in a 12-team PPR league. Rather than participate in an actual mock draft, I'll use current player ADPs to determine who's remaining on the board when each selection comes back to me. Of course, drafts are never so clean-cut. But this should give us useful reference points for making real-world decisions.
Round 1 -- WR Justin Jefferson -- A lot could go wrong with any player. For example, if Kirk Cousins is knocked out for the season in mid-September, Jefferson's production could tank. But he's the "safest" elite redraft option, and I feel confident about landing enough good-to-great RBs later.
Round 2 -- WR DeVonta Smith -- Per the rules of this mock, the top 23 players (based on ADP) have now been taken. If I'm drafting strictly based on ADP (not advisable), the top available guys are Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Mark Andrews, and Najee Harris. For my personal rankings, Smith is the best available player, and I'm taking him without hesitation. ". . . Without hesitation" is because I'm picking at the 2-3 turn. There's a scenario where, if I went #2 instead of #1 in the opening round, I might take Jalen Hurts in the second round instead. Why? Isn't Smith ranked higher (better) on my draft board? Sure. But after going WR in the first round, my top preseason QB (Hurts) would be a more valuable addition. Unfortunately, Hurts' 23 ADP means he (and Patrick Mahomes) are already off the board, so that's why I'm going Smith.
Round 3 -- RB Aaron Jones -- I like eyeing ADPs during real drafts, because they offer clues re: which guys might be available the next time I pick. In this case, my top two targets are Aaron Jones and Justin Herbert. Both will be taken before I make another selection. Given the options, I'd rather lock in Jones.
Round 4 -- WR Drake London -- I believe in Drake London, which is why he's my RB14 (compared to an RB26 ADP). He'll be gone when the draft comes back to me in rounds 6-7. Trusting my analysis over the market's assessment. It's a tough call, and I also need to own it.
Round 5 -- RB Alexander Mattison -- James Cook, Alexander Mattison, and even Kyle Pitts (an interesting pairing with London) all seem appealing for different reasons. With no immediate need for a fourth WR, I'm drawn to Mattison, because Cook should be available for my next selection.
Round 6 -- RB James Cook -- The late-sixth / early-seventh round is a fascinating stretch this year, at least based on ADPs. Beginning in the late sixth (pick #68), it goes Chris Godwin, D'Andre Swift, Deshaun Watson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Lockett, Javonte Williams, Isiah Pacheco, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, . . . you get the idea. This is a critically important period. There are plenty of high-upside guys. Our decisions hinge on who we've already drafted and how much we value those still available. Cook's overall 78 ADP makes little sense to me. With pick #72, I take him with confidence.
Round 7 -- RB Javonte Williams -- I'm not yet jumping on a QB (Dak Prescott will be the next to fall, based on ADP), and I'm not desperate for a non-elite TE, with great upside to be found later. A healthy Javonte Williams could be the steal of the draft, and he gives me an all-important third starting RB.
Round 8 -- WR Gabe Davis -- At the 8-9 turn, I don't want to take two WRs, because carrying six this early in the draft makes almost no sense. Five is enough, and I can swoop in and add another later if needed. But Gabe Davis is one of my favorite top-100 bargains, so from my perspective, this is a no-brainer mover to lock up what might be the best WR corps in this fake league.
Round 9 -- RB Samaje Perine -- Based on ADP, Samaje Perine will be gone by round 10. By taking Williams, I'm somewhat committed to snagging his glorified handcuff, especially given Williams' higher-than-normal injury risk.
Round 10 -- RB Tyler Allgeier -- This is pick #120. As you can see, I still don't have a QB or TE. Looking ahead a few rounds, I'm not concerned. Let's load up on more RBs, because we can never have too many. Tyler Allgeier should crack the top 40 positionally, and he's also one of fantasy's most valuable handcuffs.
Round 11 -- RB Elijah Mitchell -- Rashaad Penny is ranked a bit better on my draft board. However, I don't need a de facto starting RB. A glorified handcuff running behind an all-world RB who might need a maintenance week or two is a perfect fit for an 11th-round selection.
Round 12 -- QB Jordan Love -- Now I shift into positional-need mode, because the time is right. With back-to-back picks, I start with my favorite QB bargain all summer, Jordan Love.
Round 13 -- TE Sam LaPorta -- An outstanding rookie entering a pretty ideal situation in Detroit, especially with Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games.
Rounds 14 and 15 -- RB Jaylen Warren and RB Tank Bigsby -- Pick #'s 172 and 173 are all about RB handcuffs. And not just any handcuffs. Jaylen Warren and Tank Bigsby look ready for big roles if their respective starter goes down.
Rounds 16 and 17 -- QB Desmond Ridder and K Cameron Dicker -- Desmond Ridder is my second-favorite QB bargain, so pairing him with Love makes sense. If neither pans out, I could trade some RB depth for a half-decent starter, or I could find someone on waivers. Candidly, if we're not selecting an elite quarterback, it's often better to wait and take a chance on a couple bargains. And I'm bullish about the Chargers' offense this season, which means I'm bullish about their kicker, who connected on 21 of 22 field-goal attempts as a rookie last year.
Round 18 -- DST Detroit Lions -- My favorite DST bargain, by far. I don't understand why Detroit is the DST20 in ADP. More than happy to roll the dice.
To recap, this was not a pre-planned mock draft, if that makes sense. When I sat down to write this, I made my decisions in real time, and then wrote the blurb before moving on to the next pick. Each decision influenced future decisions. Once I was out of the running for an elite QB, and once I committed to fading the top TEs (in favor of bolstering my RBs and WRs), my strategy for the first half of the draft was essentially set.
Love and Ridder were always in my back pocket -- parachute options in case I didn't land a "great" quarterback. And there were four of five tight ends I would have been happy to draft in a double-digit round. LaPorta was available at a time when I didn't want a specific QB, RB, or WR.
Tomorrow I'll do this again, but picking from the #6 spot. My rankings will still guide me, but as always, they won't *direct* me.
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