Final Thoughts on Mock Drafting, and Fantasy Implications Regarding Jonathan Taylor, Trey Lance, Corey Davis, and DJ Chark
Before jumping into some fascinating news with huge fantasy implications, I want to share a final thought on mock drafting. Some of you have wisely pointed out that ADP isn't necessarily an accurate indicator of where players are getting taken. You're absolutely right. Like actual rankings, ADP is a guidepost. I've been in enough online draft rooms -- and I'm sure many of you can relate -- where players are listed based on ADP . . . and where opponents often take one of the next players on the list.
Psychologically, that list matters. It's often a fallback option, particularly for managers who are on the clock with no clear sense of who they want next. Snagging one of the next players on the list is usually considered "safe."
When I draft, I've got one eye on my pre-determined bucket of positional bargains, and one eye on ADP. If I've ranked one of my favorite bargains as a seventh-rounder, then if he's available early in the sixth, I'm probably pouncing. If I've ranked another favorite bargain as a 12th-rounder, then I probably need to get him no later than the 10th. Because the longer a draft goes, the more variance we see. ADP matters less and less as we move into double-digit rounds. Early rounds often proceed like clockwork, while later rounds are like the Wild West. Anything can happen.
Last night I searched for a recent PPR mock draft conducted by "experts." Found one from nine days ago, featuring 10 ESPN fantasy analysts. The early going looked entirely normal. No one wants to look stupid. Pick the safe "great" player and move on.
But I was surprised to see how many later-round bargains hung around 'til a round or two before their ADP. Many of them were guys I've highlights in these columns the past three days. In this ESPN mock, AJ Brown went #18 overall, while Jalen Hurts went #23. I'm heavily pushing both as bargains. Brown went a little after his ADP, while Hurts went a little before. But both would have been easily attainable if drafting off my rankings.
Drake London came off the board with the 69th pick, compared to a 67 ADP. For a guy I'm targeting a round or two early, it's fascinating that every ESPN fantasy analyst faded him. And I get it: this is not about whether ESPN analysts know what they're talking about. This is largely a function of how ADP influences even those who study this stuff year-round.
Later, ESPN's people continued selecting some of my favorite bargains at or near their ADP, including Gabe Davis (#98 vs. 104 ADP), Elijah Mitchell (#134 vs. 141 ADP), and Tyler Allgeier (#158 vs. 154 ADP). These are not coincidences. All three players have had relatively muted preseasons. Managers -- even those who believe they're the best -- are at risk of falling into the trap of picking one of the next-best players based on ADP.
And that brings us to Kenneth Gainwell, who's earned plenty of summer buzz. I've continually ranked him several rounds ahead of his ADP. But apparently it's not enough, or at least not enough if I were mock drafting with ESPN's analysts. Because someone drafted him at #101 (compared to a 183 ADP). Even Roshon Johnson (#140 vs. 194 ADP) went slightly before where he's situated on my spreadsheet. Both are hyped running backs. Both are perceived as more valuable than their ADPs. If we want to draft them, we need to reach moderately or significantly earlier than their market value suggests.
If you've already drafted, it would be great to hear who surprised you -- whether they went later than expected or earlier. We primarily care about "earlier," because understanding the gap between ADP and "real market value" is one of the keys to effective drafting.
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A quick rundown on the fantasy implications of notable news. Jonathan Taylor has until early next week to find a trade partner. His value is all over the place. He might hold out. He might return to the fold in Indy. He might land on a new team (though that seems like a longshot, unless Taylor somehow gets paid what he wants, which seems unlikely). He's someone you'd draft if he falls several rounds below his ADP, knowing that he's the ultimate boom-bust option, with more bust potential than boom.
Apparently, Sam Darnold has won the #2 QB job in San Francisco. And actually, that might be good news for Trey Lance. The Niners have made it even clearer that he's not part of their future plans. His trade value probably takes a hit, though the all-in Niners might not care. If they can get a player who can help them win the Super Bowl, all good. That means we could see Lance on the move before this year's trade deadline. If a quarterback gets hurt, or if a title contender has a weak backup, don't be surprised if Lance ends up as a backup in a high-powered offense, becoming a must-add in two-QB / Superflex leagues.
Corey Davis reportedly has retired. While this thins the Jets' receiving corps a bit, it's probably not enough. I've moved Mecole Hardman up my draft board about 15-20 spots. Nothing extreme. I don't expect Aaron Rodgers to be a top-16 passer (in terms of production). This is still a Garrett-Wilson-led passing attack, with Allen Lazard, Hardman, a trio of tight ends, and a dynamic backfield filling in the gaps.
And DJ Chark is once again injured. Jonathan Mingo and Adam Thielen are now clear-and-away the only Panther wideouts worth drafting in mid-sized leagues, and even that might be a stretch. Terrace Marshall will return eventually, and I expect Bryce Young to struggle in Year 1. If any WR is a bargain on this team, I'm putting my money on the rookie Mingo. The second-round draft pick represents this franchise's future, along with Young and a handful of other key pieces. I expect Young to pepper his fellow rookie with targets throughout the year.
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