For a day that featured no preseason games, yesterday was pretty significant for fantasy. Let's try to make sense of it. In particular, sometimes we overreact to big news. It's important to put some of this stuff in perspective.
With Russell Gage out for the season, Tampa Bay loses its reliable #3 WR, thinning a top-heavy receiving corps. It barely impacted my rankings for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Sure, they might get a few more targets overall. In leagues where you can start 4+ WRs, their overall ADPs make them slight bargains. However, I'm still fading them based on their positional rankings; there are 28-30 WRs I'd prefer to invest in.
The more interesting angle concerns who will replace Gage. Rookie sixth-rounder Trey Palmer could seize it. He looked the part in his first professional appearance this past weekend, collecting a 4-33-1 receiving line. Veteran David Moore was competent during his time in Seattle, and Kaylon Geiger and Deven Thompkins have outside shots at claiming the job. A former five-star recruit, Palmer is the upside play here. And yet, we should recognize this team's presumed limitations at quarterback, and whether it even matters in fantasy. Gage already was a fringe option. I don't believe Palmer or any other secondary Bucs receiver has a better shot at playing at Gage's level.
Meanwhile, for a hot second it appeared Treylon Burks would be the biggest Wednesday story. After getting carted off, it was revealed he "only" has a sprained LCL. It's still not good news. Burks was wildly undervalued heading into this summer. Although he remains undervalued, the gap is closing. DeAndre Hopkins gets a clear bump on this news, as he's better positioned to serve as the early-season alpha. I've also elevated Kyle Phillips by almost a full round, in the belief Burks is on the wrong side of questions in Week 1, and is now a slightly higher-than-normal re-injury risk.
In Carolina, Terrace Marshall's back injury means Bryce Young probably begin the season with a clear top-three: the aged Adam Thielen, the injury-prone D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Mingo. I've liked Marshall this summer and still view him as a bargain. But he's now the odd man out, while Mingo becomes the best value play. I'd be shocked if Thielen and Chark make it through the whole season.
And things are getting dire for those (like me) who were all in on Jonathan Taylor only a month ago. He's now left the team for personal reasons, and he's still not 100% healthy. He wants to get paid long-term, or he wants to get traded. At this point, the latter option would be ideal, even if it means sharing a backfield with a good RB. He could still be one of the highest-volume running backs if he sticks with Indy. But that's the point: Why run yourself into the ground in a contract year? He's seen how that's worked out for Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, among many others.
Keep an eye on Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt. Because this backfield would be a hot mess if it's leaning on Deon Jackson, rookie Evan Hull, Kenyan Drake, and (when he returns) Zack Moss. Anthony Richardson's Year 1 development hinges partly on having Taylor, or at least someone who can consistently move the chains.
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