How often have three teams from the same division gone all in on a Super Bowl? The AFC East was one-sided for nearly two decades. Now the seemingly (at least somewhat) overmatched Patriots are on the outside looking in, as the Jets have added a key insurance policy on a hopeful title run.
Fantasy-wise, I'm still trying to assess the implications of the Dalvin Cook signing. Am writing this at 5:30am, because last night my head wasn't there. It still isn't, candidly.
Breece Hall is still working his way back from a season-ending injury, and might not be 100% until late September, October, or even later. The addition of Cook means New York can afford to take things more conservatively with Hall.
But Cook also isn't 100%, though he *should* be back on the field later this month. Off-the-field legal issues (which include counter-suing his accuser) hang over him, and now this team. While the threat of a suspension reportedly won't arise until next year, if at all, Cook has faced serious ethical questions since college. Fair or not, he carries meaningful legal risks.
Additionally, he's coming off the highest snap count of his career. I'll discuss this data and its implications later this week. But if subscribers are wondering, there are many reasons why I'm not ranking him anywhere near his RB27 ADP. Just because he was the top available playmaking free agent, it doesn't make him a good bet to crack the top 35.
There have to be re-injury concerns for Hall and Cook. The latter just played the first full season of his career after developing a reputation as a perpetual health risk. This year, we could realistically get a small dose of Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and/or rookie fifth-rounder Israel Abanikanda. Carter probably wins -- at least for now -- because of his prowess through the air. But he and Knight mustered only 3.5 yards per carry last year. It could be argued that bringing on Cook was the Jets' response to witnessing an all-too-thin backfield for much of last season. They could have reached the playoffs if Hall had remained on the field, or if they'd had a good backup.
And that also feeds into Abanikanda, who's probably more talented than his fifth-round pedigree suggests. He has an NFL-ready frame despite his youthful 20 years of age, and he also possesses experience in the receiving game. He's the biggest upside play among the three backups, while Knight has the lowest floor.
The smoke will begin to clear in the next 10-12 days. But even then, new smoke will blow in. Drafting Hall now almost demands drafting Cook, and since I think his ADP is way too favorable, I'd be uncomfortable burning a fourth- or fifth-rounder on a hedge with his yellow flags.
It's unfortunate, because on paper this looks like a great investment. The Jets' strong defense and QB upgrade should set up this RB corps to shine. Aside from last year, Aaron Rodgers has done a great job limiting turnovers. The backfield should get all it can handle.
The problem is that to play this wisely, managers would need to use two early-round picks on two running backs who still aren't completely healthy. It's mid-August. We can't sit on this for much longer. Either we're all in on the near-elite (on paper) Hall-Cook pairing, or we're not. And I'm not, because I can't justify the risks that come with it.
I know many of you have moderate-to-strong opinions about this. Looking forward to hearing them.
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