One of the takeaways from this week is that sometimes we need to bail on a skill position in drafts. Wait until late, and then snag someone we *believe* is sharply undervalued. This gives us the freedom to focus on the other three positions. If we can walk out of a draft with (for example) one of the best RBs corps, one of the best WR corps, and a top-five TE, we're good. Because if that QB we've been eyeing all summer hits big, we're golden. Or at least, that's our hope.
It's a viable strategy, and sometimes I've found it's optimal.
Last year, four of the top 10 fantasy QBs had preseason ADPs outside the top 16. For every Matt Ryan (QB22 ADP), there was a Geno Smith (QB35). For every Carson Wentz (QB24), there was a Jared Goff (QB27).
Meanwhile, nine of the top 30 RBs had preseason ADPs outside the top 30. And if you were looking for a reliable weekly fantasy starter, six of those nine bargains finished in the top 20.
Wideout tends to be more predictable. Depth charts are mostly set by mid-August, with most teams fielding a firm top-three. I almost *never* draft a franchise's #3 WR, because they need a lot of things to break their way to become weekly fantasy starters. And that's how it played out last season, with nine of the top 30 RBs possessing preseason ADPs outside the top 30 -- and all nine began the year as their team's #1 or #2 WR.
I can't stress this enough. Maybe some of you have struck gold with a WR who, due to a rash of receiver injuries, has ascended to "solid"-ness or even greatness. It happens. But I've found that the probabilities favor #1 WRs primarily, and #2 WRs secondarily. In the seventh or eighth round, if there's a team #1 WR still languishing on the board, I'm probably pouncing. The same goes for a #2 WR who's still available in the 12th or 13th.
And tight ends tend to be the most predictable, in that it's tough to find a mammoth bargain in drafts. Five of last season's top 16 TEs had ADPs outside the top 16. Only two finished in the top 10. The pickings were even slimmer the year before, with Dalton Schultz coming out of nowhere (based on his TE33 ADP) to ascend to elite status.
The challenge with tight ends is that -- similar to running backs -- we seem to be seeing more tandems these days. Dawson Knox has been very good. But now he's competing with rookie Dalton Kincaid, which makes it difficult to bet on either one (though sure, both could finish in the top 16 in Buffalo's high-powered offense). Zach Ertz is capped by Trey McBride (or vice versa). Hunter Henry now has to contend with Mike Gesicki. And because many TEs play more prominent roles as blockers, they're more likely than #1 and #2 WRs to retreat to the background.
I'm urging folks to embrace bailing on a position, as long as we're deliberate about our exit strategy. At QB, Jordan Love remains my exit strategy. At RB, I have about 16-20 exit strategies, with or without two weekly RB fantasy starters. At WR, admittedly, I don't have many exit strategies, but that's because I'm leaning heavily into some huge bargains, each of whom is his team's #1 WR. And at tight end, if a top-six option doesn't fall into my lap, I'm prepared to snag one or two rookies late, like Kincaid or Sam LaPorta or even Luke Musgrave or Michael Mayer.
Exit strategies aren't just ways to maximize value at other positions. They're also invaluable mentally. Drafting is tough, or at least it is to me. It requires a lot of focus to track who I want, who everyone else has, who the managers picking right before me are likely to take, watching the clock, etc. Giving myself the luxury of not worrying about one of the four primary positions until much later is a relief. It minimizes the risk of desperation picks (filling roster holes). And as long as we have those bargains in our back pocket, the rest (usually) falls into place.
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