Two nights ago, two divisions of the Premier Fantasy Football League had their drafts. In one division, Josh Jacobs went 13th overall, while Jonathan Taylor went 42nd. In the other division, Jacobs went 20th, while Taylor went 58th. Small sample, and also (I think) indicative of how hard it is to value two otherwise elite RBs--who happen to be in very different situations.
When the Raiders handed Jacobs enough money to get him back on the field, the market responded. His ADP rebounded to early-summer levels. Everything was back to normal. One of 2022's top fantasy running backs -- playing on a one-year contract -- surely could be great again.
But there are so many reasons to fade Jacobs -- so many ways his season won't go as expected. I've shared some of these reasons during the preseason, including a massive 2022 workload that, based on the history of the NFL, points to a high probability (north of 75%) of a significant statistical regression (average regression: nearly 25%). His career-high 821 snaps also put him in a precarious position. Combined with his workload, Jacobs is a massive fade compared to his ADP.
Then there's the team he plays for. The Raiders are longshots to win the Super Bowl. They have the 10th toughest schedule based on opponents' 2022 win-loss records. Three of their first four contests are on the road against the Broncos, Bills, and Chargers. Road games against the formerly beatable Bears and Lions don't look favorable anymore.
With respect to all you Raiders fans, I can't envision this team winning more than seven games, and that might be generous. They've had a winning record only twice in the last 20 seasons. In one of those years, they scored only 31 points more than they yielded. In the other winning season, they surrendered 65 more points than they scored.
This year's roster isn't markedly better than last year's, and they have to contend with a tougher schedule that includes two matchups versus the finally healthy Chargers.
Jacobs averaged 29.0 touches per victory last year, compared to 19.9 in losses. And beginning in October, his rushing efficiency dipped in each successive month, culminating in 3.35 yards per carry in January.
All the warning signs are blaring. Jacobs is Exhibit A of a running back with little chance to hit his ADP (RB6 / overall 18). While the Raiders might once again run him into the ground, Jacobs has already put this franchise on notice. He wants to get paid what he deserves. I don't see a scenario where the Raiders run him into the ground in meaningless games in December and January, primarily because Jacobs has too much to lose if he looks washed up.
On a human level, it's a rough situation for a guy who largely carried this offense on his back last season. On a fantasy level, rough situations often lead to rough performances.
As for Taylor, whether he really is hurt or simply doesn't want to play (or if the Colts are not-so-subtly bailing on this season so they can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.), the reality seems clear, at least to me: Taylor might not play a snap this year. As with Jacobs and Saquon Barkley and so many others before them, Taylor needs to enter this next offseason healthy and with the allure of greatness. Because that's his best shot at getting paid.
Indy actually has one of the most favorable first-half schedules in the league. If their young offensive core comes together, and if their weakened defense somehow rises to the occasion, they could start 4-4 or even 5-3. Shortly before then, they'll need to decide whether to trade their "franchise" RB.
Those drafting Taylor need to hope he lands somewhere else. He doesn't need more than 13 touches per game to be a top-30 back, and in a friendlier offense (presumably on a team that's one great RB away from strong Super Bowl contention), he could see plenty of goal-line work.
I've fading Taylor, but not with absolutism. There's a chance I'd commit to him, particularly if my draft isn't going as well as hoped, and I need to roll the dice on upside. But his ADP remains way too bullish. So I'm not expecting that he'll fall past the first 60 picks.
If you have strong opinions about Jacobs and/or Taylor, I'd enjoy hearing them. Always interested in the "why." Why do you believe in one or both, or why are you bailing on one or both?
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