Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Isiah Pacheco a reliable top-24 RB?
2. Can Clyde Edwards-Helaire be a weekly streamer?
3. Is Jerick McKinnon a top-40 RB?
4. Will a healthy Kadarius Toney operate as the team's #1 WR?
5. Can Skyy Moore become a weekly streamer?
One more team, and not just any team. The Chiefs haven't had a losing record since 2012. In the past five years they've won two Super Bowls, lost once in the title game, and lost two incredibly close AFC Championship games. And leading the charge -- the face of the franchise -- is the inimitable Patrick Mahomes.
Still only 27 years old, Mahomes has two rings, two MVPs, and two Super Bowl MVPs. He's won 80% of his regular-season games (Tom Brady won 73%). If he keeps playing until he's 40, he'd be on pace currently to break Brady's all-time passing-yardage record. He's netted 3+ touchdowns in 47 of 93 contests (including the playoffs), which is a 51% clip. Brady achieved this 34% of the time.
Now, this comparison largely isn't fair. Brady played a chunk of his career in a less pass-heavy era, and he played on a bunch of run-friendly teams. But at the same time, it's kinda fair, because Mahomes might already be the best passing quarterback the NFL has ever seen. And with a good shot at claiming his fourth and fifth Super Bowls by the time he reaches 32-33 years old, there's a clear path for him to join Brady as the co-greatest of all time, and there's a slight chance he could someday retire as the greatest.
Fantasy-wise, there isn't much to say. His QB1 ADP makes sense. I can't argue against it. As you might have read yesterday, I've got Jalen Hurts ahead of him. It's a coin toss that might come down to who plays fewer snaps in Week 18.
In the backfield, I started pushing Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB56 ADP) as a bargain as soon as ADPs became public, and it had nothing to do with Isiah Pacheco's offseason surgeries. Yes, Pacheco (RB27 ADP) is the presumptive starter and deservedly gets credit for helping Kansas City win the title. With CEH sidelined and the aging Jerick McKinnon relegated primarily to a receiving role, the Chiefs needed a go-to RB. Pacheco didn't play like a seventh-round rookie. He played like a coveted first-rounder.
But CEH is still under contract, and with a career mark of 4.4 yards per carry and very good hands, he likely won't be an afterthought. The Chiefs have to prepare for the possibility of a 20-game season. Pacheco topped out at 182 touches as a college sophomore. He had 226 last year, including 179 in his last 12 games. I'm not saying Pacheco will tank. However, I believe this team will (eventually) recognize that with two starter-caliber running backs, they're better off utilizing both than putting the lion's share of work on Pacheco.
I'm anticipating a 60-40 split, with Pacheco averaging 12-14 touches and CEH averaging 8-10, making CEH the best value play, while McKinnon (RB39 ADP) probably will struggle to crack the top 45. As for Pacheco, keep in mind that 14 touches per game would equate to 280 or 294 (depending on seeding) if they return to the Super Bowl. That's a pretty hefty load. I don't see his ceiling moving beyond the top 20-22, making him a neutral investment rather than a buy.
The receiving corps is one of the most confusing in the fantasy universe. I had been all in on Kadarius Toney, but now he's a question mark for Week 1. I'm giving it another week before deciding whether to knock him down 30-40 overall spots. Still holding out for the possibility that he'll be good to go, and if he is, then I expect Mahomes to look his way. They had a terrific rapport after Toney joined the club midseason, as the wideout caught 14 of 17 targets (82.4%) for 171 yards and two scores. At full strength, Toney can be Mahomes' #1 WR.
His availability (or unavailability) obviously will impact Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR68 ADP), Skyy Moore (WR53), rookie Rashee Rice (WR64), Justyn Ross (WR80), and Richie James (WR89). Did I leave everyone out? Well, Justin Watson is at WR120, so you never know who might step up. But realistically, Moore will be the trendiest Chiefs WR pick. He's #45 on my draft board. Rice is a wait-and-see option, depending on how he looks in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, MVS is the tiniest of buys, with the understanding that he'll hit big some weeks and barely register most other weeks. He's a better Best Ball option than a redraft or dynasty investment.
Finally, I missed big with Travis Kelce last summer. Yes, I was one of those people who predicted a regression. In the belief the running game would improve (check) and Kansas City's wideouts would fare better than expected despite the loss of Tyreek Hill (kind of a check) -- and in light of Kelce's frequent late-season struggles in 2021, which I believe signaled a coming decline -- I went to the mat believing his best days were firmly behind him.
Instead, a mammoth 25% target share and a league-high 12 TE touchdowns (which also happened to be his career-high) place Kelce atop the TE fantasy world once again. He's my TE1 this summer, but with an overall ranking a round later than his ADP. Have I not learned my lesson? Maybe not. Or maybe the soon-to-be 34-year-old needs another monster target share and double-digit scores to justify his overall-6 ADP. I'm happy to bet on a great campaign, but am not prepared to place him far-and-above the TE2 and TE3. No one came within 100 points of him in 2022. Simply put, I anticipate that gap closing significantly in 2023.
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