Five Biggest Questions
1. Could Jalen Hurts be the QB1?
2. Can we trust Rashaad Penny?
3. Is D'Andre Swift a top-28 RB?
4. Can A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith repeat as top-10 WRs?
5. Will Dallas Goedert finish in the top 6?
As many of you know, last night was the first preseason game. There will be time in the days ahead to unpack its fantasy implications, along with the most compelling storylines heading into next week's slate. For today and tomorrow, let's focus on the final two teams, beginning with the frightening (in all the best ways) Eagles.
Everything I'm about to write reflects my strong belief that Philly will go 17-0. They're built to produce epic numbers on both sides of the ball. Adding Georgia teammates Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the draft almost seemed unfair. Replacing Miles Sanders with Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift could be a net gain, as long as at least one of those two RBs is healthy each week.
And of course, Jalen Hurts is the centerpiece. We shouldn't be surprised if he collects 5,500+ total yards and 45+ touchdowns. If that sounds farfetched, consider that he just racked up 4,461 and 35 in only 15 games. And the almost-25-year-old is only getting better. Arguably, so are his two near-elite wideouts.
Hurts led fantasy QBs last season with 25.2 points per game. He doesn't need to do much more to break Lamar Jackson's single-season record of 27.7, or Patrick Mahomes' single-season total-points record (from last year) of 417.4. The only reason Hurts has a QB3 ADP (in my opinion) is because he missed two games. He was on pace to finish as the QB1. If that had happened, I believe he'd be the preseason QB1. The market has put too much weight on his abridged season, and not enough on his strong 430-point potential. I'm all in on Hurts as my QB1.
The running back situation is somewhere between bizarre and thrilling. It all depends on your sense of adventure. Penny (RB40 ADP) is one of the most injury-prone starting RBs in decades, and Swift (RB26 ADP) has missed 3+ games in each of his three campaigns, and has seemingly played hurt even more. If I draft one, you won't see my high-fiving myself (truly a sight to behold). I'll feel like I just put $10 on red-black and $10 on odd-even at the roulette wheel, with a 24% chance at a nice payday, a 24% chance at breaking even, and a 52% chance at losing it all.
Another way to look at it is that 48% chance at doing no worse than breaking even. Penny and Swift are a package deal for me. If I get Swift, then I'll target Penny a round early. The hope is that if one gets hurt, I'll have a top-18 option for the cost of a fifth/sixth-rounder and a ninth/10th-rounder (based on overall ADPs). and if your bench is deep enough, tack on Kenneth Gainwell (RB61) for pennies. The former fourth-round pick is deceptively underrated.
That brings us to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hope you're sitting down. Last season, Brown had one of the quietest "great" stat lines I've seen from a receiver in a long time. His 88-1,496-11 line resulted in a WR6 finish. Smith was the WR9. So why are their ADPs WR8 and WR12, respectively? Philly didn't add another impact receiver in the offseason. Sure, Quez Watkins is a no-brainer bet to outperform his WR99 ADP. But there are no other wideouts to consider. It's essentially Brown-and-Smith-or-bust.
Maybe the market believes Hurts will remain a low-volume passer. Sure, that's to be expected. He averaged 30.7 throws per game last year, up slightly from his sophomore campaign. Maybe he'll up that to 31.5. But I think that misses the bigger point. On 56% of his throws, Hurts looked to Brown or Smith. Defenses knew what was coming, and in general, they couldn't stop it. Because Hurts isn't the only ascending talent in this offense. Brown likely remains pre-prime, and Smith certainly hasn't hit his peak.
Both guys finished in the top 10 last year, and as long as they stay on the field, both guys easily can do it again this year. They're terrific bargains.
Finally, when Dallas Goedert got hurt in the middle of last season, he was among the league leaders in after-the-catch yards--not merely among tight ends, but among all players. And he finished the year on a 17-game pace for 621 YAC, which would have been fifth overall, right behind Justin Jefferson. (Incidentally, Brown was sixth and Smith was 11th).
Goedert is a special talent in a special offense. His TE7 ADP assumes a per-game regression. Doesn't make any sense to me. Hurts' QB rating when targeting Goedert last season was a blistering 123.6. The TE dropped only one pass while netting the highest catch rate of any TE with 40+ looks. He's the locked-in #3 receiver in an offense whose lofty ceiling hasn't yet been realized. What a great investment.
---
Sign-up: Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings
(Pay-What-You-Want)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) Google Pay -- https://gpay.app.goo.gl/1hxqMf
(4) PayPal (the old way) -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com