Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Brock Purdy replicate his rookie-year breakout?
2. Is Christian McCaffrey the most sensible RB1?
3. Will Deebo Samuel finish in the top 18?
4. Is Brandon Aiyuk a top-30 WR?
5. Can George Kittle remain a top-4 TE?
The improbability of Brock Purdy's success cannot be overstated. The final pick in last year's draft, he then had to compete with Nate Sudfeld for the #3 QB job. The Niners had just handed Sudfeld $2 million guaranteed -- something franchises don't do for players with little chance to make the team. Purdy defied the odds simply to make it through final cuts. Then, with Jimmy G. and Trey Lance on the sidelines, the rookie defied history.
Despite his limitations, Purdy was known in college as a hard-working and gutsy quarterback who limited his mistakes. And that was exactly what the offensively loaded 49ers needed. Stick him on the Texans, and he might not have fared much better than Davis Mills. But San Francisco's stout defense frequently freed Purdy to pick his spots, rather than force the offense.
He also had perhaps the game's top pass-catching RB, one of the most offensive-minded TEs, and an above-average WR corps. Dump-offs to playmakers were to be expected; in fact, the only QBs who averaged fewer intended air yards per throw were Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan.
Surely, the honeymoon is over. Upcoming opponents have spent at least a fraction of this offseason assessing how to beat Purdy. We might witness a sophomore slump. It's almost inconceivable to think he can remain a weekly fantasy starter.
And yet, the market has already factored this in. His recovery from a serious elbow injury has left him with a QB26 ADP, which assumes he'll miss multiple weeks at some point. But barring a setback, he should be a reliable two-QB/Superflex league option. He's currently my QB20. With a realistic ceiling around the top 14-16, I'd call him a buy. However, a healthy Purdy should translate into an improved ADP. So he probably won't be a bargain for much longer.
In the backfield, CMC was everything fantasy managers (and 49ers fans) could have hoped for. Talent, usage, and scoring opportunities are among the keys for fantasy success, and CMC epitomizes these qualities. I like that San Fran deliberately limited his touches. He earned more than 18 carries only once in a Niners uniform -- a far cry from how Carolina deployed him. McCaffrey (RB1 ADP) is also my RB1, because he's too good and too integral to bypass.
Elsewhere, Elijah Mitchell (RB42 ADP) has the handcuff role largely to himself and is priced about right. With Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price battling for the #3 job, Mitchell is a must-draft a round or two early if you land CMC.
What should we make of Deebo Samuel (WR16)? After a breakout 2021 campaign, he clearly regressed last season. But in addition to missing four games, he also didn't seem to be 100% when he *was* active. He's acknowledged as much. Based on overall ADP (39), I've got him as a soft buy. The same goes for Brandon Aiyuk (WR32 ADP). Let's keep in mind that this is a pretty top-heavy offense led by four outstanding skill players. Jauan Jennings is a distant secondary option, while Danny Gray Ray-Ray McCloud, seventh-round rookie Ronnie Bell, and others are simply trying to garner one or two looks per week.
My relative bullishness about Deebo and Aiyuk *might* be easier to understand when you hear my thoughts on George Kittle. Last year I drafted him after he fell a couple rounds beyond his ADP, and he went on to thrive as the TE2 in points per game. But he's also highly injury-prone, is turning 30 in October, and became a security blanket for the inexperienced Purdy (this is key) with Deebo hobbled.
Kittle's yardage per game plummeted compared to recent seasons, and his catch rate dipped to a four-year low. What changed for the better? He had the second-most TE touchdowns (11). In my view, that's not easily sustainable heading into 2023, assuming CMC, Deebo, and Aiyuk remain fairly healthy. Kittle's TE4 ADP (and overall 49 ADP) are too bullish for me. He's my TE6, with an overall 60 ADP. I'd rather wait one round and snag Dallas Goedert or Kyle Pitts.
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