Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Joe Burrow be elite?
2. Can Joe Mixon finish in the top 14?
3. Who will be the RB handcuff, and will it matter?
4. Can Tee Higgins finish in the top 12?
5. Is Irv Smith draftable?
A recent calf injury has put Joe Burrow's Week 1 status in a little bit of doubt. Joe Mixon's "aggravated menacing" charge continues to hang over him. For a franchise once again firmly in the hunt for its first Super Bowl title, this isn't where they want to be.
For Burrow, as always, it comes down to his health and that of his two premier receivers. And at some point we have to talk about his o-line protection. This line seemingly has improved since last season, though it might be no better than middling. Still, we're talking about a quarterback who's been sacked 153 times in only 49 NFL games (including the playoffs). By comparison, Patrick Mahomes has endured only 151 sacks in 94 games.
Dynasty-wise, the pummeling of Burrow must end. It's simply not sustainable. Redraft-wise, he's one of many top-8 QBs with an elite ceiling. He's my QB6. His ADP is QB4. Naturally, I'm fading him. But unlike most fades, I wouldn't feel half-bad if he fell in my lap one round after his market price.
The backfield concerns me, and not just because there's a chance Mixon could face a suspension, or even a guilty verdict in court for his off-the-field actions earlier this year. Cincy's long-time bell cow hasn't looked the same since late in the 2021 campaign. He's averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in his last 400 attempts. His downturn began after Weeks 11 and 12 two years ago, when he rushed a whopping 58 times.
Among RB starters, he's #2 on the all-time carry list behind Derrick Henry. He's coming off a career-low 1.5 yards after first contact. Sure, Samaje Perine is gone. But Chase Brown (RB64 ADP) is an intriguing boom-bust rookie, while Trayveon Williams . . . well, Williams was carted off the field yesterday, a couple hours before I started writing this. But he's expected to be okay, so we'll see if Brown can seize on a narrow opportunity to lock up the handcuff job.
As of now, Mixon is a fade for me. I don't trust his efficiency, health, and/or legal/suspension risk (take your pick). There's a lot to be nervous about. He's my RB19, compared to an RB15 ADP. But Brown is my RB41. The bell-cow-ready rookie has the size and speed to carry the load in a high-octane offense. He's one of my favorite below-the-radar handcuffs.
The receiving corps is once again cut-and-dry. Ja'Marr Chase makes sense at his WR2 ADP, while Tee Higgins (WR13) is also pretty fairly priced. And although Tyler Boyd (WR54 ADP) also seems reasonably ranked, I've got him as a bargain in my overall rankings. That might chance in the coming weeks. For now, he's "safe." If I want more upside later, I'll push players like Jonathan Mingo, John Metchie, and Zamir White ahead of him.
And that brings us to Irv Smith. I'm a sucker for talented reclamation projects, especially when they're still in their prime (age-wise) and compete in strong offenses. The Vikings drafted Smith in the second round in 2019. Injuries limited him to only eight regular-season games in the last two years. He's more about potential than results at this point. However, his TE24 ADP assumes he'll be one of the worst Bengals starting TEs in a while. But he's my TE15, in the belief that touchdowns and decent tight end volume will deliver at least streaming production.
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