Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will start at QB, and will it matter?
2. Is Rachaad White a top-20 RB?
3. Can Mike Evans finish in the top 28?
4. Can Chris Godwin finish in the top 24?
5. Are any other receivers draftable?
After winning the Super Bowl in the 2020 season, the 2021 Bucs arguably were even more dominant with a seemingly unfair collection of pass-catchers. But a season-ending torn ACL/MCL for Chris Godwin and a season-ending freak-out by Antonio Brown (might have) been the difference between that almost-playoff-comeback versus the Rams and an almost inevitable return to the title game.
Then 2022 happened. For the first and last time in Tom Brady's career, his team finished with a losing regular-season record. The franchise averaged a league-worst 3.4 yards per carry, and the injury-plagued offensive line also didn't help.
But that doesn't mean Brady wasn't at least partially to blame. For the first and last time, his advanced age was on full display. He averaged 44.4 pass attempts in 18 games, including an opening-round playoff loss to the Cowboys in which he threw an incredible 66 times. In fact, during the 16 months from the start of the 2021 campaign to the end of his career, Brady attempted 1,609 passes. None of that was normal.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 271 regular-season looks. Had Brady attempted one-third fewer passes -- bringing him closer in line to the league average -- then Evans' and Godwin's fantasy stats assuredly would have dipped, perhaps dramatically. They both finished in the top 20 because Brady slung the ball at a record pace. He had earned the right to air it out, despite mixed results. His successor won't have the same leeway.
And that brings us to Baker Mayfield (QB33 ADP) and Kyle Trask (QB35). Both guys are longshots to throw more than 550 times this season, even if one starts all 17 games. Currently they're battling for the #1 job, and whoever wins it isn't a shoo-in to keep it by November. I can't envision investing any draft capital on either one, even in two-QB/Superflex leagues. I'm not at all interested in securing Trask in dynasty. In a rapidly improving NFC South, Tampa Bay might face tough rebuilding questions after this season, and it's hard to imagine one of these quarterbacks earning a "franchise QB" moniker.
In the backfield, Leonard Fournette is long gone, though he did better in fantasy than I expect him to, finishing as the overall RB12. It will be hard to replace his pass-catching prowess. 2022 third-round rookie Rachaad White is the next man up. I was bullish about him last summer, but believe he's priced about right at his RB23 ADP. In the belief this team will be bottom-10 in scoring, White might need around 260 or more touches to crack the top 20. Doable, but there's plenty of room for error. And with a relatively low ceiling for a supposed bell cow, I wouldn't be thrilled to get White unless he somehow falls in the draft.
Meanwhile, the Evans-Godwin tandem might be nearing the end. While the younger Godwin's contract pretty much ensures he'll be a Buc through at least the 2025 season, the team has an easier out with the soon-to-be 30-year-old Evans after this year. The first "very winnable" matchup they have is Week 9 on the road versus Houston. First they'll face the Vikings, Bears, Eagles, Saints, Lions, Falcons, and Bills. We shouldn't be surprised if they're in the NFC South cellar entering November, at which point a QB change would be almost automatic, and the passing attack could go from sub-par to untouchable.
Evans (WR29 ADP) and Godwin (WR26) are a bit overvalued to me. More could wrong than go right. And despite being virtually undraftable, Russell Gage is ridiculously undervalued at his WR105 ADP. This receiving corps is too thin to keep him out of the top 90.
Finally, is Cade Otton (TE36 ADP) ascending? Perhaps not. He's my 33rd-ranked tight end for all the reasons stated above. More than that, Tampa Bay added TE Payne Durham in this year's draft. While not profiling as a clear-cut NFL starter, Durham made considerable noise in his last two years at Purdue, producing a 101-1,027-14 receiving line in 23 games. He has definite red-zone appeal if he shows well enough this month to lock down the #2 TE role. It would be yet another fantasy roadblock for the otherwise capable Otton.
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