Five Biggest Questions
1. Is any QB fantasy-relevant?
2. Will Tennessee trade Derrick Henry?
3. Can Treylon Burks be a top-28 WR?
4. Is any other WR draftable?
5. Will Chigoziem Okonkwo be a top-12 TE?
Tennessee was the AFC's 1-seed in 2021, and then started last season 7-3. But key injuries and a brutal second-half schedule doomed them, as they inadvertently helped usher in the dawn of the Jaguars era in the AFC South. Yes, the Titans were up four games on Jacksonville with seven remaining. It was an epic collapse, though it's safe to say if Ryan Tannehill (6-6 as a starter) hadn't gotten hurt, they could have salvaged a postseason bid.
And now this franchise is on the precipice of a potentially painful rebuild. They're not yet throwing in the towel on 2023. But if the first 4-to-6 weeks don't go as hoped, I believe we'll see dramatic changes.
As a result, the Titans are one of the toughest teams to figure out fantasy-wise, at least for me. And if you see things differently, I'd love to hear it. For now, Tannehill (QB32 ADP) is a short-term bargain in two-QB leagues, with the understanding that he could be on the move before the trade deadline. Tennessee will take a meaningful cap hit if they cut him after this season, though it wouldn't be prohibitive. Still, assuming rookie Will Levis (QB38 ADP) deserves a long look as their next franchise quarterback, and assuming the Titans have only a faint shot at the playoffs, Levis should earn more starts.
Following this logic (or my stupidity, if you completely disagree with my thinking), I don't see how this team keeps Derrick Henry all year. The all-world RB will turn 30 in January and is coming off his third 300+ carry campaign in the past four years. Fortunately, his receptions jumped in 2022, and if that continues into 2023, he'll probably be worth his RB8 ADP. However, his value cannot get any higher, and these Titans might be at least two years away from having the personnel to make a deep playoff run. It's now or never re: unloading Henry, and I believe they'll happily swap him for an instant-impact draft pick before it's too late.
Realistically, two types of teams would want his services. The first type is a playoff contender that's lost its starting RB for the season (or most of it) and needs one of the best in the game to help keep the offense moving. In that scenario, Henry once again could crack the top 3, making him a relative steal.
But the second type is a Super Bowl contender that already has a good starter and wants to go all in -- not only to help their team, but also to prevent another Super Bowl contender from getting him. Consider the Niners' decision last year to trade for Christian McCaffrey, even though they had Elijah Mitchell. Or consider this year's Cowboys, who could probably use another 250+ touch RB alongside Tony Pollard, who's never been a bell cow. In this scenario, while Henry's TD total might spike, his usage could decline. And if it means a return to 1-to-1.2 receptions per game, he might not finish in the top 8.
This makes Tyjae Spears (RB55 ADP) one of my favorite handcuffs. He proved he could be a workhorse in college, and the Titans invested a third-round pick on him. Hassan Haskins is now dealing with off-the-field legal issues, and Julius Chestnut is a back-end depth piece. If he gets the opportunity (i.e. if Henry exits before the trade deadline), then the rookie could become an instant top-24 RB. Although a bit undersized, he was selected to be utilized. Because a team that has one of the best RBs in the world wouldn't invest a Day 2 pick on a guy they plan to keep largely on ice for years.
At wideout, I kept waiting for the Titans to draft another WR this year or sign one in free agency. Seventh-round rookie Colton Dowell doesn't quite cut it. So they'll roll with Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Kyle Philips. Burks (WR35 ADP) is the clear value play. All summer I've expected him to pop into the top 26. Hasn't happened, or at least not yet. But this is one of the league's most top-heavy WR corps. There's Burks, and then there's everyone else. I have no interest in reaching for Westbrook-Ikhine or Phillips. Gimme Burks a round before his overall 64 ADP, and I'll be happy regardless of who's throwing to him.
Finally, Chigoziem Okonkwo was perhaps the only Tennessee skill player to outperform expectations last year. The former fourth-rounder went on a bit of a tear beginning in Week 12, which happened to coincide with the start of the team's seven-game losing streak to close out the season. Burks missed two of those contests and most of a third. And most of these games featured Malik Willis or Joshua Dobbs at QB -- to play-callers making their first NFL starts, leaning heavily on higher-percentage underneath throws.
That's not to say Okonkwo's performance was a fluke. The 2022 fourth-rounder can become a long-term starter in this league. However, it helps that he'll continue to face minimal competition for looks. That's why his TE ADP is 11. It's a pretty bullish projection for a pretty raw prospect. Oh, and this team just added TE Josh Whyle in the fifth round. I'm not banking on Okonkwo running away with a high-volume starting job, and would prefer lower-ADP guys like Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, and even Irv Smith Jr.