Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jordan Love a franchise QB?
2. Can Aaron Jones be a top-10 RB?
3. Will A.J. Dillon finish in the top 30?
4. Will Christian Watson be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Can any other Packers receiver be a consistent fantasy asset?
I'm a Jordan Love true believer. Let's get that out of the way.
The "mistake" Green Bay made by drafting him in the first round in 2020 was that they were, perhaps, one impact receiver away from making a Super Bowl run. Remember, they proceeded to go 13-3 that season while scoring the most points in the league. Aaron Rodgers claimed the third of his four MVP awards, but the Packers fell five points short of knocking off the Bucs in the NFC Championship game -- a contest where Davante Adams had more targets (15) than all other WR teammates combined.
Quite possibly, this franchise gave up a shot at the title in order to land their (eventual) QB of the future. They could have snagged Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., etc. Instead, they hedged on Rodgers' impending departure.
Does this sound familiar? Of course. These same Packers selected Rodgers in the first round 15 years earlier, only to keep him on ice for his first three years while Brett Favre kept doing his thing.
I firmly believe that Love is the real deal, and that he's learned a lot these last three years while watching one of the best QBs of all time lead by example. The only quarterback Green Bay's drafted since was incoming rookie fifth-rounder Sean Clifford. It should be noted that Clifford's about to turn 25 years old and is mainly a warm body on a thin depth chart. Love's QB21 ADP screams "buy." He has all the tools to be a top-16 quarterback, and there's plenty more pop if his young receivers continue to develop.
As you're about to see, my bullishness about Love feeds into the rest of the team's skill players. Aaron Jones (RB16 ADP) and A.J. Dillon (RB33) are both sold buys. I like that they're capable through the air, and it's quite possible that they'll be offensive centerpieces in the early going while Love acclimates, especially near the goal line. I'd be very happy drafting Jones ahead of his overall 53 ADP and Dillon ahead of his overall 98 ADP. In other words, unlike last year, you don't have to invest big draft capital on both to secure value.
Meanwhile, second-year wideouts Christian Watson (WR21) and Romeo Doubs (WR55) are also nice hedges, as long as you agree that Love can be a top-16 QB. Rookie Jayden Reed doesn't concern me; he'll probably be more boom-bust in Year 1. Instead, I'm expecting heavy volume for Watson and Doubs to the tune of 250+ combined targets. For context, they combined for 133 in 27 games last year while barely earning more looks per game than Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan. With Cobb, Tonyan, and de facto #1 WR Allen Lazard gone, Watson is a neutral investment at his ADP, while Doubs is a great buy at his.
Finally, it says a lot that the Packers selected one of the best incoming rookie TEs in Luke Musgrave. The youngest appears to be NFL-ready and should serve as a top-six offensive option beginning Week 1. While that might not sound appealing -- and while his college injury history is at least moderately concerning -- this franchise clearly envisions him as a playmaker. He has a nothing-to-lose TE26 ADP. In 16+ team leagues, he's draftable primarily because he should get plenty of snaps with minimal TE competition. The rest hinges on red-zone usage.