Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Aaron Rodgers a top-14 QB?
2. Can Breece Hall be trusted as a top-10 RB?
3. Who will be Hall's handcuff?
4. Will Garrett Wilson be a top-10 WR?
5. Can Allen Lazard and/or Mecole Hardman be weekly streamers?
It is beyond bizarre that, by the end of this season, the greatest Jets QB campaign in franchise history might belong to rental Aaron Rodgers. Because when your team's greatest QBs include Ken O'Brien, Joe Namath, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (intentionally leaving out the post-prime Boomer Esiason), there's an opening for a new king.
And to Rodgers' credit, he's joined a team that has the pieces in place to go far. All this future Hall-of-Famer needs to do is (a) stay healthy, and (b) see (a). Honestly, there's not much else to it. While Rodgers isn't the dominant force he once was, the 39-year-old might be the league's best glorified game manager. Does that make him a buy at his QB17 ADP? Barely, I suppose. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts. I'm not thrilled to draft a guy for who might top out most weeks at 230 yards, two TDs.
There's nothing wrong with that. But I want 30-point upside. But Rodgers never even reached 19.4 points last season, despite the fact that the often hapless Packers needed his arm more than ever. If his days as a monster performer are nearing an end, I'd rather go boom-bust at that spot.
In the backfield, a healthy Breece Hall could be a top-five RB. It's that simple. If you trust that he'll be good to go in Week 1 without any added injury risk, fantastic. His RB11 ADP reflects market concerns. I get it. If he falls to me with 10 RBs off the board, count me in. There's simply too much talent, and a strong defense should keep him rolling deep in games.
The rest of the backfield is more mysterious. Rookie Israel Abanikanda (RB67) somehow has a better ADP than Michael Carter (RB73). I currently prefer a proven asset like Carter over the fifth-round rookie. Meanwhile, 2022 undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight (RB96) looked strong in his first three appearances before limping to the finish line. He's the wild card. Drafting Hall necessitates selecting Carter or Abanikanda has a handcuff. But if Knight pushes for the backup role in camp, then the non-Hall RB corps will be too cluttered to bet on.
At wideout, it's likely Garrett Wilson or bust. No doubt, he's the real deal. If he could hit 83-1,103-4 with last year's quarterbacks, then surely he can take a meaningful step forward with Rodgers under center. This is all baked into Wilson's WR9 ADP, which is too bullish for me. WR16? Sure, bring it on. But in addition to what I believe will be a more muted Rodgers than we generally saw in Green Bay, this receiving corps is crowded enough to question if Wilson will earn enough looks to crack the top 10.
Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman are capable, experienced secondary options. If Corey Davis sticks around, then it could further cap Wilson's upside. Again, this isn't about whether Wilson will do poorly (he'll be great). It's about whether we can expect a repeat of his 147-target rookie season, when Davis frequently was the #2 WR, while Braxton Berrios operated as the #4. No more Elijah Moore? Great for Wilson. But that's offset by the additions of Lazard and Hardman.
In fact, there's nothing wrong with rolling the dice on Lazard (WR50 ADP) or Hardman (WR87) in Best Ball leagues. And if you believe Rodgers will throw for 4,200+ yards and 30+ scores, then of course we can feel optimistic about this passing game. However, I'd rather see Wilson's ADP come down a bit. And the problem is that it probably won't. The hype is too big.
At TE, I will never understand why the Jets acquired Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, and third-round rookie Jeremy Ruckert last offseason. In particular, snagging Ruckert ahead of several eventual high-impact RBs (Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, etc.) seemed unconscionable if this team doesn't plan to feature Ruckert for years.
So we're left with a strangely assembled trio led by Conklin (TE24 ADP), while Uzomah and Ruckert are currently outside the top 50. If Conklin is still "the guy" (like last season), then he should comfortably outperform expectations. But that's a big "if" at this stage, and again, it comes down to how this franchise views Ruckert, who realistically won't ride the pine every game like last season.