Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Sam Howell be a top-20 QB?
2. Will Antonio Gibson be a top-30 RB?
3. Will Brian Robinson be a top-35 RB?
4. Is Terry McLaurin a top-28 WR?
5. Are Jahan Dotson and/or Curtis Samuel draftable?
After starting last season 1-4, the Commanders pulled a minor miracle by getting back into the playoff hunt. It wasn't easy. In Week 6, Justin Fields and the Bears had first-and-goal from Washington's five with 52 seconds left, but DC's defense held on. The following week, they held on for a two-point victory over the Packers. The week after that, they trailed by nine points versus the Colts midway through the fourth quarter, converted on fourth-and-six, and eventually won it with 22 seconds remaining.
Oh, and they defeated the 8-0 Eagles, handing Jalen Hurts his only regular-season loss since Week 12 of the 2021 campaign.
So it was all the more surprising when they squandered the season while sitting at 7-5, controlling their playoff destiny, and facing a reeling Giants team that had lost three of four. And this context is critically important to understanding their situation -- and their key players' fantasy implications -- heading into 2023.
Because if Washington hadn't stormed back to relevance in October and November, they surely would have installed rookie QB Sam Howell as their semi-permanent starter. Instead, he made his debut in a meaningless Week 18 matchup versus a playoff-bound Cowboys team that primarily didn't want to endure injuries. The Commanders started Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams in the backfield. It was like giving someone a cookie crumb and asking if the cookie tastes good.
We have no idea how good Howell is. Yes, he was a fifth-round draft pick. But it's hard to dismiss a guy who posted three consecutive 3,000+ passing-yard college seasons while rushing for 828 yards in his final campaign. Whatever his limitations, the fact is, its been years since this franchise has enjoyed an above-average aerial attack -- 2017 specifically, which was the last time they (and really, it was Kirk Cousins on his own) threw for 3,800+ yards.
Howell is a nothing-to-lose flyer at his QB27 ADP. He has the personnel to surprise. I don't believe he has a legitimate shot at cracking the top 10. But in deep or Superflex leagues, he's a clear bargain.
The same cannot be said of the backfield. While Antonio Gibson (RB31 ADP) or Brian Robinson (RB37) should exceed expectations, the chance of both outperforming their ADPs seems slim. As always, if you disagree, please speak up. But I've been pretty consistent about my concerns with Antonio Gibson's heavy usage. He was more of a gadget receiver in college, and then Washington -- which desperately needed a bell cow -- made him their workhorse. It panned out in 2020, then he took a step back (despite netting 300 touches) in 2021), before struggling with dramatically declining efficiency last season.
No doubt, he can still be a weekly streamer if he continues to earn about 3.5 targets per game. However, seven of his last eight rushing scores have come from the one-yard line -- though only one of these occurred after Week 3 (at which point Robinson became the 1A grinder). If Gibson is converted into a J.D. McKissic-like running back, then he might need to work harder for his scores, which would cap his ceiling.
Meanwhile, Robinson's miraculous and heroic return to the field after getting shot in August deservedly earned him accolades. But at some point, we have to examine what he actually did on the field. He frequently looked like a sub-middling starter. Volume kept him relevant in very deep leagues. Beyond that, he was often benchable. He also *might* have competition in rookie Chris Rodriguez. If you need a TD-dependent option, then sure, Robinson might help you a few weeks. But he'll probably need to be the workhorse to crack the top 35.
Things get very interesting at wideout, where three capable receivers are competing for looks. Last year, Curtis Samuel averaged 6.0 touches per contest, while Terry McLaurin netted only 4.9, and rookie Jahan Dotson averaged only 3.1. Samuel's speed and versatility make him a difference-maker in this offense, and also uniquely well-suited to complement his very green quarterback. I expect plenty of dump-offs by Howell, with Samuel benefiting more than any Commander other than (perhaps) Gibson.
As a result, I'm all in on Samuel at his seemingly ridiculous WR76 ADP. Even if Howell is far worse than expected, Samuel should get plenty of work. McLaurin (WR24) is far riskier, while Dotson (WR37) presents modest risk. In my draft, I'm planning to fade the latter two and (if I need another WR) happily snag Samuel in the final round.
Finally, the tight end situation remains as murky as ever. Logan Thomas still has only one production campaign under his belt. While injuries have taken their toll the last to years, this is also a far more interesting offense than it was when the team's #2 WR was Cam Sims, and its #3 was the 31-year-old Dontrelle Inman. Thomas is now 32 and a distant #5 or #6 offensive option. Plus, John Bates and 2022 rookie fifth-rounder Colt Turner loom. There's no apparent reason to draft any Washington TE, even in 16-team leagues.