Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Deshaun Watson return to greatness?
2. Is Nick Chubb a near-elite RB?
3. Can Amari Cooper be a top-24 WR?
4. Can Elijah Moore be a weekly fantasy asset?
5. Is David Njoku a top-10 TE?
There are three types of fantasy managers: those who believe Deshaun Watson can be elite or near-elite again, those who believe his best days are behind him, and those who have no freakin' idea. I'm firmly in the third camp.
What we saw from him last season was moderately abysmal. Jacoby Brissett arguably outplayed him. Among the 47 QBs who completed more than 60 passes, Watson had the third-worst completion percentage, ahead of only Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, and Zach Wilson. He endured the lowest yards-per-carry of his career and the highest interception rate since his rookie campaign. His 79.1 passer rating bordered on benchable.
Except of course, he cannot be benched. The Browns staked their near-term fate on a 27-year-old quarterback who hadn't played in nearly two years. And a recently restructured contract -- as well as the 2023 draft -- were designed to make 2023 and 2024 "win-now" seasons. Because he'll be owed more than $190 million from 2024 to 2026. And after the 2024 season, they won't be able to pay many of their biggest stars with expired contracts.
So in fairness, there are reasons to be optimistic about Watson's 2023 fantasy outlook. While his QB9 ADP remains a bit aggressive to me, this franchise has surrounded him with as much talent as they could reasonably acquire. Also in fairness, if last year's 14.3 fantasy points per game marks his floor, then hitting 17.5 and being on the doorstep of the top 12 is entirely doable. I'd like to see his ADP drop a couple more spots. Until then, he's a neutral investment.
In the backfield, some of you might recall my big miss with Nick Chubb two years ago, when I pegged him as the overall RB2. He averaged only 15.4 points per game while missing three contests. So was last year that different? He played every game, but averaged only a moderately better 16.6 points per outing. A touchdown bumped proved to be the difference, aided by a little over 1.5 more touches per contest. That was good enough to elevate him to the RB6 spot.
As a result, I'm scratching my head (and not the good kind of head-scratching) over his RB4 ADP, which suggests career-best numbers enter his age-28 campaign. He's coming off a 329-touch season, and while he unbelievably kept his 5.0+ ypc streak alive, he averaged his fewest yards per carry and worst broken-tackle rate. Granted, both remained near-elite. But unless his receptions skyrocket, the presence of Watson near the goal line undercuts the market's bullishness. Chubb didn't score after Week 12, not coincidentally when Watson took over. Chubb averaged 3.1 red-zone touches with Brissett under center, compared to 1.3 with Watson under center. I'm sharply fading Chubb.
And keep an eye on Jerome Ford, a potential handcuff with Kareem Hunt still unemployed. The downside is that Demetric Felton has monster reception potential if Chubb gets hurt; Felton caught 97 passes in his final 27 games at UCLA, and he looked NFL-ready as a 2021 rookie. But Ford also has good hands and is a more complete back. He's priced right with an RB50 ADP.
At wideout, there's plenty of chaos. Again, this franchise has given Watson everything he seemingly needs to thrive. Amari Cooper (WR19 ADP) is no longer the clear-cut alpha, and his 12 drops last year certainly didn't help. This is looking more like a spread-the-ball passing attack than a two- or three-man operation. Elijah Moore is the better value play with his WR44 ADP, while either Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR70) or rookie Cedric Tillman (WR107) have great shots at cracking the top 60 if Watson can return top-14 production. 2022 third-round rookie David Bell (no ADP) also looms, and if he shows well in camp, then it could truly throw this fantasy situation into turmoil.
Adding to the chaos is David Njoku, who proved in spurts last season that he could be one of the best fantasy TEs. He and Brissett were locked in from Weeks 3 to 7. Then he dealt with injuries. And in five games with Watson, despite playing in a more top-heavy offense than this year's team, he secured only 17 of 28 targets (61% catch rate) for 164 yards. Yes, he found the end zone twice. But his catch volume and yardage tanked, and I'm having trouble justifying his TE9 ADP, which assumes he'll be a borderline weekly fantasy starter. Competing for touches with three-to-five capable wideouts and a bell cow RB should keep him out of the top 11.