Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Bryce Young be a top-16 QB?
2. Will Miles Sanders be a top-20 RB?
3. Is Adam Thielen a fantasy starter?
4. Can any other WR become a fantasy starter?
5. Is Hayden Hurst draftable?
The last dozen QBs taken #1 overall in NFL drafts were Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, and JaMarcus Russell. Historically, picking #1 has been a bit of a crapshoot, regardless of position. While success occurs often, it's not always the kind of success that elevates franchises beyond a couple of years.
Bryce Young faces three distinct challenges heading into his much-hyped rookie campaign. The first concerns the sharp pressure he faces -- not only as a supposed savior of a long-suffering franchise that hasn't had a winning season since 2017, but also as a somewhat unusual #1 pick. For only the second time in the last 25 years, a team traded up to the draft's top spot. In 2001, the Falcons traded up to get Michael Vick at #1, and the Chargers parlayed their haul into (among other guys) LaDainian Tomlinson. 15 years later, the Rams traded up to get Jared Goff, while their trading counterparts (the Titans) used their winnings in that swap to land (among other guys) Derrick Henry.
This year, the Panthers relinquished their top offensive skill player (D.J. Moore) to land Young. They also surrendered their 2023 second-rounder, 2024 first-rounder, and 2025 second-rounder. In time, we'll know definitively if this deal benefited Carolina. As of now, I believe it didn't, which leads to the second significant challenge facing Young. This franchise mortgaged part of their present and future to acquire their next franchise QB. As a result, Young will play with a sub-middling-at-best receiving corps led by a declining 33-year-old, an often-injured wideout, a 30-year-old journeyman TE, and three young WRs battling for short-term relevance.
The third challenge concerns Young's diminutive size (for a QB). I discussed this a few years ago when Kyler Murray entered the league. Sub-six-foot quarterbacks rarely if ever develop into "good" talents. Before Murray came along, Doug Flutie was one of the best, and he earned (and barely deserved) one Pro Bowl season in 12 NFL campaigns. The mobile Murray has dealt with injuries the last two years. Murray also has a larger frame than Young, though the incoming rookie reportedly tacked on 10 pounds in a few months.
Still, there's a lot that could wrong for Young in Year 1. Although there's a narrow path to top 16-20 numbers, the same could be said for just about every other non-top-20 fantasy quarterback. Carolina bet the farm on a QB who could help turn this team around. But it could be three or four years before he has the personnel to be "great." Hopefully he'll remain durable until then. But I'm steering clear in 2023.
In the backfield, the Panthers also went big with Miles Sanders, who was often painfully underutilized in Philly (though it arguably prolonged his prime years). He's the same guy who caught 50 passes as a rookie in 2019. I want his ADP to be worse than RB26 so I can invest with confidence. Unfortunately, it's RB20. With Chuba Hubbard looming, we don't yet know if Sanders will be a 250+ touch guy, or more like a 200-225 touch guy.
Remember, this won't be the high-powered Eagles offense. The Panthers could struggle mightily, especially in the early going, and despite a seemingly favorable schedule. Sanders had 315 touches in 20 games last year, crushing his previous season high. His new team has him under contract for four years. It would be inconceivable for them to overwork him in the first year of his deal, knowing that this franchise likely remains at least a year or two away from making a more capable title run.
At wideout, as referenced earlier, this is a hodgepodge of past and future talent, which won't make fantasy managers happy. Adam Thielen is a fierce red-zone target, but is clearly only a dart throw in drafts. D.J. Chark remains an injury-plagued crapshoot. Rookie Jonathan Mingo might join the starting lineup by 2024. Terrace Marshall Jr. could realistically become Young's top target.
But how does this help managers? And by the way, none of these guys are ranked inside the top 60 positionally, and Marshall strangely is the worst with a WR90 ADP. Gimme Marshall in the final round so I can stash him on my bench for the second half of the season. As for the rest, good luck predicting who will step up each week. Hint: it might be Laviska Shenault Jr. once or twice. It's a fantasy nightmare.
And that nightmare continues at tight end. I loved Hayden Hurst last preseason and still believe he could've finished in the top 12 if he hadn't missed 28% of the year (four full games and most of a fifth). Still, if he couldn't break through in a top-heavy offense with Joe Burrow at QB, then I don't have much faith in a spread-the-ball offense with Young at QB. Hurst is a stop-gap signing who will probably be playing somewhere else in 2024.