Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jimmy Garoppolo draftable?
2. Can Zamir White become a top-40 RB?
3. Will Davante Adams continue to dominate?
4. Are Jakobi Meyers or Hunter Renfrow top-40 WRs?
5. Are Austin Hooper or Michael Mayer draftable?
How many teams have gone all-in over the years, come up well short, and then faced a period in NFL purgatory -- neither competitive enough to make the playoffs, nor bad enough to secure prime draft capital?
This is the Raiders' situation after a disastrous 2022 that began with the much-hyped reunion of Davante Adams and Derek Carr. Unfortunately, injuries to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller revealed a thinness to this receiving corps that Carr & company could not overcome. In fairness, Carr has rarely looked like a franchise-elevating QB. But on a team that ran extensively with Adams, Josh Jacobs, and the overachieving Mack Hollins, there was only so much a middling starting quarterback could do.
Now the Raiders are in worse shape. The aging Adams is a year older, Jacobs faces huge yellow flags (and might not even play), and the team's "prized" offseason acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo might end with an unceremonious release after it was revealed he'd recently had foot surgery. There are a lot of moving parts with massive fantasy implications. Let's zoom in on the biggest variables.
At QB, if Garoppolo is ready for Week 1, that'll be great news obviously for fantasy managers in two-QB leagues, because Garoppolo *should* be able to garner top-20 QB production when healthy. But if he isn't ready, then 37-year-old Brian Hoyer or uber-old rookie Aidan O'Connell would take the reins. O'Connell will turn 25 before Week 1. If this team wanted to go 3-14, they probably could without much difficulty.
As a result, Adams (WR10 ADP) might actually be overvalued. Garoppolo is a poor bet to start more than 12 games regardless of his September availability, and any ensuing downgrade at quarterback could render Adams little more than a streamer. I secured him last year and was obviously pleased. This year, he's a full fade.
Elsewhere, Jakobi Meyers and Renfrow will battle for secondary targets, while DeAndre Carter could enter the picture (we're talking deep-league flyer) if one of the three starters gets hurt. Regardless, I want little to do with these guys unless Garoppolo's under center, and even then, it'll be a coin toss whether Meyers or Renfrow gets 9+ points in a given week.
In the backfield, Jacobs is doing the smart thing (in my opinion) and not accepting a franchise tag. Le'Veon Bell sat out several years ago after getting repeatedly overworked. He wanted a long-term contract with enough guaranteed money to ensure he wouldn't have to produce at a high level ever again. He knew what he was doing. Jacobs is coming off a 393-touch campaign. He's a major regression and/or injury risk. His RB10 ADP makes no sense to me.
That opens the door for 2022 rookie Zamir White, who I really like at his RB67 ADP. Nothing to lose and a lot to gain for the talented back who could play James Conner's former role (when he replaced Bell in Pittsburgh) and take over the 2023 bell cow job while Jacobs sits. Or White could bide his time before Jacobs inevitably is shelved in a lost season, as the team gets a closer look at White heading into 2024.
There's no one else of note behind White. Ameer Abdullah and the 33-year-old Brandon Bolden are no threats. A healthy White could be a weekly top-25 RB. He's one of my favorite handcuffs based on value.
And at tight end, Vegas made an important decision to draft Michael Mayer, who appears to be NFL-ready. Austin Hooper temporarily stands in his way, though I expect Mayer to eventually earn starter's reps. The rookie has a bright NFL future, and I firmly believe his TE29 ADP will improve as the summer progresses.