Five Biggest Questions
1. Is James Cook a top-30 RB?
2. Can Damien Harris finish in the top 40?
3. Will Stefon Diggs remain near-elite?
4. Can Gabe Davis take another step forward?
5. Who's the TE to draft, and can he finish in the top 10?
"Thankful for you."
"Thankful for you. . . . You'll never know how much."
Yeah, I'm a sucker for athletes showing affection toward each other. Not the obligatory high-fives from teammates after an NBA center bricks a free throw on his first of two attempts. I'm talking about genuine gratitude.
And that was on full display in the lead-up to the Bills' game last Thanksgiving versus the Lions. Buffalo was a lukewarm 7-3, having lost two of their previous three contests, (somewhat) shockingly placing them behind Miami atop the AFC East. But that didn't stop Josh Allen from telling Stefon Diggs how he felt during pre-game warmups.
And if you've watched the video of Diggs' response (". . . You'll never know how much."), you probably understand why I'm bringing this up. This wasn't some marketing ploy to appeal to a national audience. Diggs could barely say what he wanted to say, choking up at the end.
Locker room chemistry in the NBA is more cut-and-dry. Seven or eight guys generally play prominent or semi-prominent roles. Two or three of those guys might be stars. If they're sympatico, then it's easier for the rest of the squad to fall in behind them.
Not the case in the NFL, where 50+ guys command varying degrees of attention. It's a lot harder to keep everyone on the same page. And when two of the best offensive players are at odds, the entire operation could break down.
When assessing 2023 fantasy values for Bills skill players, we need to recognize what happened between Thanksgiving and the divisional round of the playoffs. After rattling off seven straight wins, Buffalo exited the postseason after a brutal 27-10 home loss to the Bengals. They hadn't scored that few points in any of their previous 24 outings, during which they averaged roughly three times that total.
Diggs yelled at Allen during the defeat. Not a big deal. It happens. But then he skipped voluntary OTAs and then the first day of mandatory minicamp. Head coach Sean McDermott used the media to voice concerns and help steer Diggs back into the fold. The star wideout apparently is in a better spot, at least publicly. But that doesn't mean his frustrations have subsided.
If this team struggles out of the gate, the noise could get louder. Their first nine contests include road games against the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, and Bengals. They also have tough home matchups against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Giants. There should be room for statement games, and 6-3 or 7-2 start is very doable. However, if this franchise -- which is built to win titles -- underperforms once again and finds itself merely competing for a wild-card spot, then the simmering tensions could carry onto the field.
Regarding Allen, I think we've already seen him at his best, at least from a fantasy perspective. Maybe that's not fair. But there's been a steady drumbeat of "run less" coming from him and his coaching staff. His rushing uptick in the last two seasons should drop back down, perhaps significantly. He averaged nearly 1.5 more carries per game last year than in 2020. It's not sustainable for a guy who's getting hit way too often. Allen is a fade at his QB2 ADP.
In the backfield, James Cook is primed for a breakout. The question is how much, especially after the offseason signing of workhorse Damien Harris, whose goal-line prowess could limit Cook's TD opportunities. For now, I like Cook as a soft buy at his RB31 ADP, while Harris is an even bigger buy at his RB45 ADP. Barring injuries, both guys are well-positioned to serve as weekly streamers or better. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray looms in case one of these guys gets hurt. But despite a surprisingly good 2022 campaign, the 33-year-old Murray is a longshot to produce.
As for Diggs? He's still the alpha in this offense, at least for another year. Allen had a blistering 120.3 QB rating when targeting his #1 receiver last year. What's not to love? Well, I'm fading Diggs a bit at his WR5 ADP, viewing him as a slightly riskier top-12 WR than he was last year. The underrated Gabe Davis (WR44 ADP) should take another step forward. The same goes for Khalil Shakir (WR94 ADP). Fifth-round rookie Justin Shorter (unranked) probably needs a strong August to break into the top four.
Back to Diggs. 19 of his last 23 scores have come inside the red zone. I'm betting the additions of Harris and impact rookie TE Dalton Kincaid will harm Diggs' scoring opportunities. Diggs tied for the fourth-most WR red-zone targets last season, accounting for the sixth-highest team target share. He also tied for the second-most WR targets inside the 10, also accounting for the sixth-highest team target share.
Gimme Davis a round early. The same goes for Shakir in a large Best Ball leagues. But Diggs seems to be going too soon in drafts. I get it. I simply don't agree with it.
Finally, I don't understand why Kincaid (TE13 ADP) is dramatically above Dawson Knox (TE22). On my draft board, Knox is one notch above Kincaid. Regardless, I can't envision either one finishing in the top 10, unless one misses significant time. Kincaid is the clear dynasty play, as he was the top TE coming out of college this year, and he's playing in an offense that should score in buckets. However, Knox is no slouch.
It might come down to who scores the most. In other words, I'm not seeing a clear edge for either one. In very deep leagues, Knox is the clear value play. But again, I'm looking elsewhere for a weekly starter.
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