Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jared Goff a top-16 QB?
2. Will Jahmyr Gibbs get enough volume to finish in the top 12?
3. Can David Montgomery be a weekly streamer?
4. Will Jameson Williams be a weekly streamer after his suspension?
5. Is Sam LaPorta a top-14 TE?
Most people examine last year's stats when making projections for the upcoming season. I think that's a fair statement. I do it, too. It's a useful starting point. But when it's a useful *ending* point, that's a problem.
Because as always, context is everything. You know this intuitively. And when you try to make sense of injuries, advancing age, coaching changes, personnel changes, and other factors, that long-ago starting point is often firmly in the rearview mirror.
When it comes to the Lions, it's even more complex. Because last year was a tale of two seasons. In a rough September and October when they won only once, D'Andre Swift played in four of seven contests, while T.J. Hockenson started all seven -- and then was traded to Minnesota in what appeared to be a tank move for a franchise going nowhere in 2022.
But ironically, that's when Detroit turned things around. Sure, D.J. Chark started making noise, while Jamaal Williams did his best LeGarrette Blount impression as a goal-line monster. And yet, rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams never got going, Hock was gone, and Swift often played less than 40% of the team's offensive snaps while taking a significant step back as a rusher.
The late-season Lions arguably didn't have a better roster than what they had earlier. But they *played* better. In September/October, they went 1-6 while scoring 24.7 points and yielding a league-high 32.1 points per game. They also forced only six turnovers. The rest of the season they went a staggering 8-2 while netting 28.0 points and yielding only 20.2 points per game. They also forced a much healthier 16 turnovers.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell found that the 2022 Lions had the NFL's third-youngest offense and second-youngest defense. Collectively, they had the youngest roster in the league. (Note to self: It would be interesting to know how often young offenses average more points per game in the second half of seasons compared to the first half, and if the inverse holds true for the oldest offenses.)
So making fantasy projections for the 2023 Lions requires more than merely examining their 2022 stats. Of course. But in addition to the usual factors, we need to recognize that (quite possibly) the second half of last season offers more applicable clues than the first half. This roster is pretty loaded. They added a franchise-elevating RB and franchise-elevating TE in the draft, as well as a host of defensive players who easily could help catapult the Lions DST into the top 10. Simply put, I'm bullish about them winning their first NFC North division title, and I'm also bullish about them winning at least one playoff game.
Jared Goff remains a big reason why. Somehow, he's managed to maintain a career as a starter despite frequent whispers that he was on the hot seat. And in fairness, I pushed him last summer as my favorite QB fantasy bargain, when he entered the season with a QB27 ADP. It turns out I wasn't bullish enough, because he finished as the QB10. But he still isn't getting respect. His current QB ADP is 18. I've got him ranked 13th. Beginning in November last year, he threw 17 TD passes and only one interception. He was statistically near-elite in December and January. Goff is a must-buy in all leagues.
In the backfield, exit Swift and Williams, enter Jahymr Gibbs. The 21-year-old rookie resides in Bijan Robinson's shadow, but that's more a testament to Robinsons' ridiculous talent. Gibbs could become a multi-year top-5 RB for you dynasty folks, especially as part of this ascending, youthful offensive corps. I'm all in, ranking him at #8 among RBs, compared to an RB14 ADP.
What about "backup" David Montgomery? Won't the veteran challenge Gibbs? Possibly in the opening weeks, or maybe not. I've got him priced right at his RB30 ADP, seeing him more as a glorified handcuff (6-8 touches a game) than part of a true committee. In the modern NFL, most title contenders are finding they need at least two starter-caliber backs. But it doesn't mean they share the load. Montgomery's fantastic tackle-breaking and pass-catching skills make him a must-draft insurance policy if you land Gibbs. But his stand-alone value is more lukewarm.
At wideout, Jameson Williams' suspension put a damper on his earlier ADP. Great news for us, right? Well, only if you agree that he's a must-get at his WR50 ADP. He has too much talent to ignore. I'm throwing last year's injury-influenced struggles out the window. He and Detroit's coaching staff will figure it out. They have to. There's not enough WR depth to ease Williams into the offense. I expect him to be a top-32 guy when he's on the field, making him an ideal IR stash two or three rounds earlier than his overall 128 ADP.
This makes Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR9 ADP) a soft bargain. He'll he "the guy" downfield in the first six weeks. I can't envision drafting any other Detroit wideout, including the aged Marvin Jones, the recently added Denzel Mims, and holdovers like Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Trinity Benson. Jones has the best ADP (WR92), though that doesn't mean much at this stage. I expect someone to step up as a top-55 option, at least until Williams returns. However, I'm not comfortable burning a draft pick on any of these secondar/tertiary options right now.
Finally, I'm 98% baffled by rookie Sam LaPorta's TE19 ADP. It takes a lot to make me that baffled. Goff's ADP leaves me about 93% baffled, which is a whole lot of baffle. But 98%? How is that possible?
Admittedly, the 2% doubt is legitimate. We're talking about a rookie tight end projected to go in the third round of this year's NFL draft. What if he falters in August? What if Brock Wright, James Mitchell, or Shane Zylstra open the year as a pseudo co-starter alongside the rookie?
Here's the thing: even in a realistic worst-case scenario, LaPorta will beat TE19 market expectations. Last season's TE18 was Jordan Akins. The 2021 TE19 was C.J. Uzomah. And so on. Detroit snagged LaPorta early in the second round. He was the #2 TE off the board after presumed #1 Dalton Kincaid. The Lions had another pick later in the round. They could have waited and landed another starter-ready tight end. Instead, they took the guy they wanted.
That's the kind of player I want to invest in as a fantasy manager. Kincaid might open the year as the #3 offensive option in a top-8 offense. Plenty of targets available, and plenty of scoring opportunities. Even when Williams' suspension ends, Kincaid should be entrenched as a weekly deep-league streamer. He's my TE12, and if I had more guts, I'd push him into the top 10.
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