Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Trevor Lawrence join the ranks of the elites?
2. Is Travis Etienne a safe top-16 RB?
3. Is Calvin Ridley a top-20 WR?
4. Will Christian Kirk finish in the top 30?
5. Is Evan Engram a top-8 TE?
One of the toughest things about fantasy predictions is projecting an unproven player's near-term ceiling. When the Jags drafted Trevor Lawrence #1 overall two years ago, he was viewed by some experts as one of the greatest QB prospects in years, and perhaps decades. Eventually, barring something unforeseen, he would become a great NFL QB.
The question was "when." When would someone with this much talent rise to meet such lofty expectations? When is it acceptable for fantasy managers to predict elite production--ideally, right before he first reaches elite production?
Because this is the key for managers. It's fairly easy to assign value to Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, and Justin Jefferson. They've all finished at least one season at the top of their position. There's a track record for eliteness. They've done it before, so we can envision them doing it again.
That's not (yet) the case with Lawrence. Each summer I've shared what is seemingly obvious--that at some point he'll join the ranks of the fantasy elites. Our goal is to anticipate "when," and then pounce, just like some of you did the year Mahomes broke out, or the year Lamar Jackson broke out, or the year Josh Allen broke out, etc. None of them were expected to be elite heading into the first season when they hit fantasy paydirt. But those who invested in these eventual stars reaped massive rewards.
I don't have the courage to put Lawrence in my top 3 or 4. But I feel confident that his QB8 ADP is more of a floor than a ceiling. He's my QB6, immediately ahead of Justin Fields (QB6 ADP). Despite not having anything close to Fields' insane mobility, Lawrence is on the verge of becoming one of the league's most polished passers (and it doesn't hurt that he's pretty active on the ground). An improved receiving corps bolsters Lawrence's standing as a soon-to-be great QB with high-end pass-catchers. That's a terrific combination, especially for a 23-year-old with plenty of room to grow.
The backfield is a bit muddled, thanks to Jacksonville drafting Tank Bigsby in the third round. That and the addition of D'Ernest Johnson signaled that this franchise wants backfield depth while eyeing a deep playoff run. A former five-star recruit out of high school, Bigsby has the pass-catching chops and workhorse experience to slide firmly into a glorified handcuff role behind Travis Etienne. However, the rookie also has endured fumbling issues. There's some clear high-risk, high-reward here.
Etienne appears to be priced right at his RB12 ADP, while Bigsby (RB54 ADP) is a bargain for those who, like me, enjoy having boom-bust rookies on their roster. And Johnson (RB77 ADP) could be a not-so-sneaky waiver add if Etienne or Bigsby gets hurt.
The wideout corps is simply fascinating. I didn't want to buy into Calvin Ridley when the summer began--not because he isn't incredibly talented, but because he's joining a pretty packed receiving group, and because he hasn't seen the field in nearly two years. How much adjustment will he need, and will he still be the same superb playmaker at age 28 that he was in his only "great" fantasy season in 2020?
But my bullishness about Lawrence feeds into Ridley's realistic projections, and I'm comfortable drafting him at his WR19 ADP. And since I believe Lawrence easily will be able to feed 2-3 receivers per week, I'm also excited about Christian Kirk (WR30 ADP), believing that he's a great bet to finish in the top 26, making him a buy. As for Zay Jones (WR59 ADP), positionally I'm neutral, but his overall 164 ADP seems way too conservative. In an offense that should score plenty, Jones seems like a more reasonable investment than, say, Matthew Stafford (156 ADP), Gerald Everett (150 ADP), or Juwan Johnson (143 ADP).
And in yet another power move in this year's draft, the Jags selected TE Brenton Strange in the second round. A terrific blocker, he also showed a knack for the end zone at Penn State, compiling 11 career TDs on 70 catches. Interestingly, his ADP isn't even among the top 100 TEs. That probably will change once the preseason rolls around. For now, he's firmly on my radar in large Best Ball leagues.
Of course, Evan Engram (TE8 ADP) remains untouchable atop the depth chart. That said, while his TE8 ranking makes sense, I've got him as a fade on my rankings compared to overall ADP. Maybe that will change. I want to see what Strange can do. And Engram hasn't been a major red-zone threat. Unless that changes, he'll need to work relatively hard for his scores, making him more target-dependent than a typical top-10 TE.
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