Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kirk Cousins a top-12 QB?
2. Will Alexander Mattison keep the starting job all season?
3. Can Jordan Addison finish in the top 40?
4. Is K.J. Osborn draftable?
5. Is T.J. Hockenson elite?
When Minnesota lost at home to the Giants in the opening round of the playoffs, some on social media referred to the Vikings as "frauds"--that they were never as good as their 13-4 record. They were an incredible (truly incredible) 11-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Surely, if things had broken a little differently, they might have ended up 10-7 or worse, and perhaps even missed the postseason.
They came back from 10 down midway through the fourth quarter in Week 3 against the Lions, taking the lead for good with 45 seconds remaining. Greg Joseph kicked a game-winning field goal with 24 seconds left in Week 4. They converted five third downs on a game-winning drive in Week 5 with a little over two minutes remaining. And so on.
And we cannot ignore their historic comeback against the Colts, when they trailed 33-0 in the third quarter.
I never viewed the Vikings as frauds. They were a middling team that happened to lead the league in fourth-quarter points. They were even better on the road, leading the NFL with an average of 10.3 fourth-quarter points. For context, the rest of the league averaged only 5.7. This was one of the best close-out teams we've seen in years, backed by a veteran QB, veteran RB, and high-end receiving corps led by (arguably) the game's best wideout and a top-4 tight end.
But there are two major trouble spots for Minnesota entering 2023, and they're tied to the fantasy values of several skill players. First, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen are gone. While I'm a big believer in Alexander Mattison's talent and near-term production, he's arguably not at Cook's level. Maybe I'm wrong. But he's consistently been a less efficient runner than Cook. If the running game takes even a small step back, the offense as a whole could, too.
Then there's the NFC North. The Vikes picked an ideal time to play big late in games, as the Packers struggled, the Lions didn't find their footing until the second half of the season, and the Bears remained in rebuilding mode. To put an exclamation point on this angle, Chicago yielded the most points last year, while Detroit gave up the fifth-most. Green Bay's defense was middling.
While the Lions' and Bears' defenses should be somewhere between "better" and "much better" this season, Minnesota also must contend with the fallout of winning their division--namely, facing the Eagles and Bengals on the road, as well as the Niners at home. It all adds up to a tougher collection of defenses. Yes, they'll get some easier games, just like every other team. But on balance, the Vikes--which averaged the eighth-most points last year--should find it much tougher to finish in the top 10, or even the top 12.
What will this mean for Kirk Cousins (QB12 ADP)? I've got him as a fade in fantasy drafts. His 2022 production was aided by a career-high 643 throws. He worked harder for his numbers. More than 10% of his fantasy points came when trailing in the final four minutes. Despite the talent around him, he appears to be a regression candidate.
In the backfield, I love Mattison because of his projected volume. Seventh-round rookie DeWayne McBride doesn't pose an immediate threat. And despite his speed, 2022 fifth-rounder Ty Chandler doesn't profile as a dependable NFL starter; he's already 25 years old and has a ways to go to challenge for the starting job. And Kene Nwangwu is still a wait-and-see running back who's also approaching RB middle age (25 years old). Of the three backups, I'd certainly target Chandler at his RB68 ADP, and would happily snag him a round early if I get Mattison. And as long as Mattison keeps the starting job, he should outperform expectations.
At wideout, nothing really needs to be said about Justin Jefferson, the overall #1 in ADP. I can't argue against it, especially in such a top-heavy receiving corps. Rookie Jordan Addison (WR41 ADP) is a nothing-to-lose get at his price. On a team where Jalen Reagor, Brandon Powell, and Jalen Nailor are among six or seven wideouts battling for the #4 and #5 spots, Addison should have plenty of runway. His biggest threat to reaching the top 30 might be K.J. Osborn (WR62), who admittedly as player better than I expected when the Vikes drafted him in 2020. If Addison scuffles in August, Osborn would become the value pick in this corps. But if Addison holds his own, I'll remain sold on the rookie.
And it's hard to overstate T.J. Hockenson's impact on this offense. When Minnesota traded for him, the offense hit another level. The former first-round pick is only 26 years old and should be Cousins' #2 target. He's actually the TE2 on my draft board, ahead of Mark Andrews, which makes him a soft buy at his TE3 ADP. The best fantasy tight ends are integral to their team's offense. One could make the case that only Travis Kelce is more integral to his team's offense.
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