Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Tua Tagovailoa a trustworthy top-10 QB?
2. Can Devon Achane become a weekly streamer?
3. Are Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson top-40 RBs?
4. Is Jaylen Waddle a top-12 WR?
5. Are any TEs draftable?
There are those who believe Tua Tagovailoa has the talent to join the ranks of the elites. And there are those who wonder if his concussion history will lead to an early retirement. And actually, he reportedly considered retiring after last season -- a campaign in which concussions derailed him as well as his team.
But Miami didn't secure a capable backup this offseason. It's Tua-or-bust for a franchise that's gone all in on a Super Bowl run. Some might point to Tua's growth as a QB, and how he has the best after-the-catch receiving tandem in the game. Others might point to Tua's higher-than-normal injury risk and a brutal schedule that could result in a losing record right before the trade deadline.
Because the Fins' first nine games are @Chargers, @Patriots, Broncos, @Bills, Giants, Panthers, @Eagles, Patriots, and @Chiefs. I'm seeing a 5-4 record if things break beautifully, and a 3-6 or 4-5 record if this team isn't in peak form. It also doesn't help that they'll get the Jets twice, the Bills a second time, the Cowboys, and a road tilt versus the Ravens.
As strange as this might sound, there is a legitimate possibility that this franchise will be out of the postseason hunt by mid-December. And if that happens, I'd be hard-pressed to bet on the injury-plagued Tua starting meaningless games down the stretch. He's priced right at his QB11 ADP. While he might hit 22+ points a few weeks, I'd put his over/under at 14.5 starts, and that brutal schedule won't make things any easier.
That logic (or lack of logic if you completely disagree) feeds into backfield projections. All eyes should be on Devon Achane (RB41 ADP), a little-to-lose rookie investment in an otherwise crowded RB corps. The 21-year-old third-rounder averaged 19.6 carries per game as a senior at Texas A&M, and his 60 receptions across his final two campaigns speak volumes about his three-down potential. His biggest hindrance to a breakout season might be his relatively small frame. But surely the Dolphins will find ways to capitalize on his blazing speed.
As great as Raheem Mostert (RB46) is, he's coming off the heaviest workload of his career after remaining shockingly healthy. The 31-year-old is a longshot to remain that durable in 2023. And Jeff Wilson (RB44) has never been a high-volume guy across a full season. He might be viewed as a "safe" top 40-60 RB as long as he continues to earn 8+ touches. But given the options, Achane has the best chance of starting during the fantasy playoffs, and that's where I'm putting my money.
Wideout is fairly straightforward. Tyreek Hill (WR4) and Jaylen Waddle (WR11) are superb. We all know this. I won't try to come up with some contrarian reason to fade them. Except . . . if you're not sold on Tua's durability, there's no good reason to draft Hill or Waddle at their price points. It's a package deal. Either you believe this franchise is poised for greatness in 2023, or you're worried about Mike White starting 5+ games under center. Drafting Hill and/or Waddle hinges on fantasy managers' mindset about a quarterback who's probably one concussion away from a multi-week absence.
Are any other Miami WRs worth targeting? Braxton Berrios is currently #3 with a WR217 ADP. Yes, that's not a typo. He and Cedrick Wilson and an array of other low-ceiling overachievers and low-floor underachievers will push for scraps. I can't envision drafting any of these tertiary options, even in the deepest leagues. There are too many to choose from, and not enough pop to justify the pick.
And at tight end, the bizarre Mike Gesicki era is over. The best-ranked TE is Durham Smythe, who (again, not a typo) has a TE103 ADP. Of course, it might be a typo on Fantasy Pros. How can a team not have even a top-50 preseason TE? Rookie sixth-rounder Elijah Higgins could jump to #2 on the depth chart if he plays strong in August. For now, Smythe is the best option, and by "best" I mean he should be drafted after the first 35 tight ends are off the board -- and by that I mean he's essentially undraftable.
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