Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Dak Prescott a top-10 QB?
2. Will Tony Pollard serve as the bell cow?
3. Can Brandin Cooks be a top-40 WR?
4. Is Michael Gallup draftable?
5. Are any TEs draftable?
Dallas finished #1 in points scored two years ago, and #4 last year. But of course, that doesn't tell the full story. In Dak Prescott's 11 full games last season, the Cowboys averaged 32.5 points. For context, the Chiefs led the league with 29.2 points per game.
This team absolutely crushed it on offense, and the often underappreciated Prescott was a big reason why. Yes, he struggled with injuries and turnovers. But when your #2 and #3 WRs are Michael Gallup and Noah Brown, we can allow some grace. His QB10 ADP is based partly on the fact that he was the QB14 in points per game in 2022. That should improve with Brandin Cooks replacing Brown. And while the loss of Dalton Schultz matters, Jake Ferguson and the rest of the TE corps appear ready to pick up the slack.
The big change concerns Zeke Elliott's departure, as the veteran was more of a drain on Dak's fantasy value than a boon last season. Zeke scored 12 times while scuffling for only 3.8 yards per carry. 10 of his TDs came from the six-yard line or closer, and seven came from the one-yard line. Dak used to thrive inside the 10-yard line, rushing for 21 touchdowns from that range in his first five seasons. But he's done this only twice the last two years. I don't believe Tony Pollard will pick up all the goal-line slack. Dak's a good bet to snag 5+ rushing scores.
And speaking of Pollard, I've got him as a slight fade at his RB9 ADP. He was never a bell cow in college, topping out at 5.6 carries per game in his final year. Last season (including the playoffs) he hit 214 carries and 258 total touches. His market price assumes he'll handle a full workload. I'm wondering if that's realistic. Rookie Deuce Vaughn (RB65 ADP) and impressive second-year backup Malik Davis (RB76) will try to earn weekly roles this summer. One of them should come out on top, netting 6+ touches per week, and perhaps much more. Because they just vacated 248 Zeke touches, and it's inconceivable that Pollard will be expected to do it all on his own.
At wideout, I was all in last summer on CeeDee Lamb as an elite WR, despite his WR10 ADP. With Amari Cooper gone, and without much faith in the rest of the WR corps, it seemed clear that Prescott would pepper the talented Lamb with targets. Now Lamb is the WR6. Still not good enough. I've got him as the WR4. He averaged 19.5 points last year in Dak's 11 full outings and has room to grow.
Elsewhere, I'm tentatively optimistic about Cooks, though his WR38 ADP is a bit too bullish, especially with Michael Gallup (WR62 ADP) and 2022 second-rounder Jalen Tolbert (unranked) looming. But if Tolbert wilts in August, then I'll feel more comfortable targeting Cooks as a top-40 WR.
And at tight end, a fascinating situation with Jake Ferguson (TE32), Luke Schoonmaker (TE41), and even Peyton Hendershot (TE102) pushing for playing time. Ferguson is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played so well as a rookie that Dallas let Dalton Schultz walk this offseason -- and then proceeded to draft Schoonmaker in the second round. One of these two guys *should* crush his ADP. I'm in wait-and-see mode until mid-August.
---
Sign-up: Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings
(Pay-What-You-Want)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) Google Pay -- https://gpay.app.goo.gl/1hxqMf
(4) PayPal (the old way) -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com