Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Lamar Jackson return to elite form?
2. Can J.K. Dobbins be trusted as a top-20 RB?
3. Will Gus Edwards finish in the top 40?
4. Who will lead the WR corps?
5. Can Mark Andrews return to 2021 form?
Three seasons ago, the Ravens lost to the Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs 17-3, marking the first time Buffalo had advanced to the AFC title game since the franchise's glory days roughly three decades earlier. But Baltimore outgained Buffalo 340 yards to 220 yards and claimed offensive time of possession for more than 35 minutes.
This was vintage Ravens football in the Lamar Jackson era, minus the scoring -- all the more shocking for a team that had hit 24+ points in 13 of 16 regular-season contests. But the Ravens seemingly had a bright future. They would surely remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender for years to come.
But in the two years since, the wheels for this franchise have come off. Well, maybe not "come off." They've been dislodged, largely due to injuries, as well as an inexplicable absence of WR depth in 2022. These issues can be repaired. And Baltimore's done a great deal this offseason to position itself for a dominant return. But will it be enough to elevate several of these personnel to weekly must-start status?
The major twin X factors are (a) Jackson's health and (b) Jackson's passing prowess. His MVP season was four years ago, when he was a 22-year-old with an almost unprecedent ceiling. But his 11.7 carries per game back in 2019 inched downward to 11.1 in 2021, and then to 9.3 last season. While a career-high broken-tackle rate last year was shocking (at least to me), his muted passing numbers weren't. He must continue to dominate on the ground to be elite, and it's fair to wonder if -- after back-to-back injury-plagued campaigns -- this franchise will want him to run less than ever.
I'm not saying he'll become a pocket passer. But a continued drop in carries -- say, to 8.0 per game -- would put more pressure on his arm. And I'm not yet convinced that he's developed into an above-average passer. His 29.5 throws per game the last two seasons reinforces this point. The Ravens have kept this passing attack largely in check, and despite improvements to the receiving corps, the question is whether Jackson can feed more than (on average) 1.5 pass-catchers per game. I'm fading him at his QB4 ADP.
The backfield is still trying to live up to expectations set three years ago, when Baltimore led the league with 5.5 yards per carry, 166 rushing first downs (19 more than the #2 team), and 31 gains of 20+ yards (10 more than the #2 team). Yes, Jackson figured prominently. But rookie J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards dominated. We know what happened on the eve of the following season, and how tough it was for both guys to find their footing in 2022.
And yet, we saw glimpses -- particularly late last season -- of what these two can still do. While it's boring to say, "durability is the key," this is essentially what managers must contend with. Do you trust Dobbins to play 14+ games? If so, then he's a bargain at his RB20 ADP. And yes, I trust him more than I don't, if that makes sense. He doesn't need more than 225 touches to exceed expectations. But Edwards' lack of usage in the passing game makes him as TD-dependent as ever. He's priced about right at his RB62 ADP, though realistically he could finish in the top 55, making him a slight bargain in uber-deep leagues.
The receiving corps might or might not provide a needed jolt to this offense. Rashod Bateman's stock is dropping as he remains sidelined. Odell Beckham Jr. missed all of last year and has rarely looked "great" since he left New York after the 2018 season. First-round rookie Zay Flowers might actually lead this WR corps in receptions and yards -- something I didn't even consider when they drafted him. I had thought a healthy Bateman would reassert himself atop the depth chart. That's no longer a certainty. Flowers (WR49 ADP) is my favorite pick of the three, while Beckham (WR43) is seemingly overpriced. Bateman (WR52) is a hold until he returns to the field.
And of course, there's Mark Andrews. Won my league two years ago because of Andrews. There's no other way to say it. Am I sentimental about it? Of course not. Andrews' TE2 ADP would be more appealing if Baltimore hadn't bolstered their WR corps, and if Dobbins and Edwards weren't ready to roll.
For context, 52% of his targets in 2021 came when trailing, as opposed to 24% when leading and 24% when tied. Five of his nine touchdowns came in fourth quarters. This was the magic of Andrews -- why he scored 301 fantasy points. And it helps explain why managers were largely frustrated with his production last year. Because after giving up the 14th-most points in 2021, Baltimore yielded the third-fewer points in 2022. Dobbins and Edwards anchored a more efficient backfield. There was less need to pepper Andrews with looks.
His ADP pretty much assumes a return to 2021 form. I see it differently, and while he's still my TE3, I'm advising managers to draft him more than a round after his overall ADP.
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