Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Derek Carr be a weekly streamer?
2. Can Alvin Kamara finish in the top 20?
3. Can Jamaal Williams be a weekly streamer?
4. What the heck will Michael Thomas do?
5. Are any TEs draftable?
The Saints are one of a handful of franchises with one foot in rebuild mode and another foot in "going all in" mode. With the Falcons and Panthers presumably ascending, this might be New Orleans' last good shot at a division title for the next few years. Could be completely wrong, but that's how I see it, and their offseason decision making seems to support it.
Because giving Derek Carr $70 million guaranteed -- and making it nearly impossible to cut him until 2025 -- screams "This is our moment." Or does it? There are two ways of looking at Carr heading into 2023. On the one hand, he's an experienced and capable QB who could immediately elevate this passing attack in ways Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book (remember him?) never could. And he's never finished worse than the overall QB20 since joining the league in 2014.
On the other hand, he's never finished in the top 10, despite (sometimes) being surrounded by exceptional talent. The Raiders surrendered the 13th-most points or worse in each of his nine NFL campaigns. New Orleans' defense *might* be the best he's ever played with, and frankly, this franchise might view him more as a game manager than a ball-slinger. Because when he's been forced to throw the ball early and often, he hasn't generally thrived.
Another interesting stat: Carr averaged the eighth-highest average time to throw last year, while the Saints' Andy Dalton averaged the sixth-lowest amount of time. The Saints' o-line might be the key to whether Carr finished as, say, the QB13 or QB19. And with a QB19 ADP, this is a useful way to assess his value. While I'm heaping concerns on him, the market apparently has even more concerns. In Superflex/two-QB, leagues, I'm very comfortable drafting him at his current price, or even a round early. In 12-team leagues, he's likely not draftable, only because his low ceiling makes him a fringe weekly streamer at best.
Meanwhile, the Saints' backfield hasn't been this chaotic since Alvin Kamara joined the league in 2017. And actually, we'd probably have to go back a decade to the Pierre Thomas / Mark Ingram timeshare days. Because Kamara isn't the same guy he once was, and the looming possibility of a suspension creates enough confusion to compel some fantasy managers to fade everyone in this RB corps.
Kamara will turn 28 tomorrow. His per-game targets have declined since 2020, while his once-elite broken-tackle rate plummeted to a dismal career low last season. He's missed six contests the last two years and is no longer the unquestioned bell cow. If you invest in him at his RB28 ADP, he *should* deliver as long as he's on the field. But the question is whether you'll have him for the fantasy playoffs, and that has to factor into managers' draft-day decisions.
New Orleans added 2022 TD hero Jamaal Williams, as well as rookie Kendre Miller. An early third-round draft pick, Miller is the obvious dynasty play here, and he could become a consistent top-18 RB by 2025. That said, he's on the active/PUP list, so until he can get back on the field, he'll remain #3 on this depth chart, making his RB46 ADP more aspirational than realistic. As for Williams, he could immediately cap Kamara's upside while poaching goal-line scores. But his RB35 ADP is too bullish for me. If he doesn't score, I can't envision him being startable. He had 262 carries last year in an arguably better offense. Let's put the brakes on anything close to a repeat performance.
I was shocked that the Saints didn't dramatically upgrade at receiver. Sixth-round rookie A.T. Perry could make a tiny bit of noise, while James Washington has barely played in nearly two years. Maybe they believe the 30-year-old Michael Thomas will put the last three seasons behind him and return to 2019 glory. And frankly, they'll probably be happy if he starts 12+ games and catches 70+ passes. For the third straight summer, he's one of the biggest enigmas in fantasy. So much talent and so much risk. His WR43 ADP presents should be viewed through two lenses. When he plays, Thomas has shown that he can still get it done. Managers who draft him probably will yield the benefits when he's active, and will have to deal with the fall-out when he isn't. That's Thomas in a nutshell.
Chris Olave is priced about right at his WR13 ADP. Some of you might be more excited to take him. I'm neutral at this stage. If Thomas has a setback during the preseason, then I'll push Olave into my top 10. And Rashid Shaheed was one of the biggest fantasy winners for the Saints this offseason. He'll continue to start, making him at least a slight bargain at his WR74 ADP. Don't be surprised if New Orleans upgrades at wideout if they're looking like a playoff team by October, especially if Thomas's injury woes re-emerge. But in Best Ball drafts, Shaheed offers nothing-to-lose appeal at an ultra-cheap price.
Finally, I'm struggling to make sense of a complex TE corps "led" by Juwan Johnson, with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau primed for their opportunities. I actually have Hill (TE21 ADP) slightly ahead of Johnson (TE18 ADP) in my rankings, but neither is ranked ahead of his ADP. There's some buzz that Hill might get more involved. Wonderful. But I want a reliable weekly TE starter, and I don't see how any of these guys fits the bill.
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