Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Justin Herbert still a near-elite QB?
2. Will Austin Ekeler dominate again?
3. Is Keenan Allen a top-20 WR?
4. Is Mike Williams a top-28 WR?
5. Can Quentin Johnston become a weekly streamer?
As my Premier Fantasy Football League opponents will learn when we draft in six weeks, I'm more bullish about the Chargers' offense than any other team. Forget last year. Hopefully, they already have. It was a campaign of what-if's, and I'm not just talking about their historical playoff collapse versus the Jaguars, when they led 27-0 late in the first half (and probably should have been up by more) before Jacksonville stormed back.
No, the Chargers' systemic pain ran much deeper. This was a club that ranked #5 in scoring the year before, but yielded the fourth-most points. Their D made meaningful strides in 2022, yet their offense took a big step back. Why? Not because of poor play, but because of injuries. Justin Herbert suffered broken ribs in a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in Week 2, contributing to their blowout loss to the Jags the following week.
Keenan Allen missed seven contests and played only one-third of his team's snaps in two other games, while Mike Williams missed four. All too often, Herbert had to lean heavily on Joshua Palmer (who led the WR corps in targets) and DeAndre Carter, while overmatched WR Michael Bandy and ceiling-capped TE Tre' McKitty combined for 20 scoreless receptions on 39 targets.
No wonder Austin Ekeler had a career-high 127 looks. All too often, Herbert had little choice but to feed his star RB. Defenses were prepared, which helps explain his career-low 6.7 yards per catch and career-low 34% first-down rate on receptions. This was frequently a one-dimensional offense disguised as a dynamic one.
And yet, Herbert managed to throw for 4,739 yards and 25 scores. On the downside, he was the QB17 in points per game. And that helps explain his somewhat muted QB7 ADP. But it ignores the likelihood of a huge rebound. On only four occasions, Allen and Williams played 40%+ of snaps in the same game. That generated an insane disadvantage for this squad, which just added an immediate-impact receiver to round out a still-impressive receiving corps.
If he stays healthy, I firmly believe Herbert will break Peyton Manning's single-season record of 5,477 passing yards, and about 70% of me believes he'll break Manning's single-season passing TD record (55). In what could be the last hurrah for Ekeler and Allen, I believe this offense will operate as aggressively and punishingly as ever. Herbert is a must-buy at his current price.
As for Ekeler, I don't want to believe he's on the decline, and his RB2 ADP presumes he isn't. But those 326 touches last year (including the playoffs) concern me a bit. Enough to knock him down? No, not really. His sky-high target expectations make him one of the safest RBs, period. I can't rationalize pushing him below the top 4. But I wouldn't be thrilled to draft him at his current price. Last year he had career-lows in yards-after-contact and broken-tackle rate, despite averaging his most before-contact yards ever. His declining efficiency is concerning. To be blunt, I don't want to have to pick fourth in my draft -- around when he generally comes off the board.
His handcuff is a crapshoot. I was wrong to push fourth-round rookie Isaiah Spiller last summer. Instead, 2020 fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley played some of the best football of his professional career (although his five dropped passes were a glaring shortcoming). Kelley has the ADP edge (RB70 vs. RB82) compared to Spiller. Presumably, these ADPs will shift a bit once these guys play a couple preseason games.
At wideout, despite his injury-plagued campaign, Allen collected 150.3 fantasy points in his eight full games. Those 18.8 points per game would have placed him fifth among all WRs. Don't count him out, even at the age of 31. However, with the rookie Quentin Johnston on the field, Allen is tough bet to match/exceed his WR18 ADP. The same might go for Williams, who finally put it all together in 2021 (a contract year) before taking a tiny step back last season. When he's great, he can be a difference maker. His WR25 ADP assumes Herbert will dominate. I'm obviously comfortable with that thought, and so I'm comfortable take Williams at his market price and accepting his relatively boom-bust production.
As for Johnston (WR46 ADP), there's clearly a lot to love. Fantasy-wise, he's a soft buy, with the understanding that his best work might come in the second half of the season. Palmer (WR95) will be one of the league's better #4 WRs. In very deep Best Ball leagues, he could be a nice get late.
Finally, Gerald Everett is the prototypical "safe" top 12-20 tight end. Nothing special, and with a great enough quarterback and pass-centric scheme to keep him engaged. While his targets assuredly will drop, he's another late-round Best Ball option, thanks to his seemingly unquestioned status atop the depth chart. If his TE17 price tag drops a bit more, he could be a must-get in 16-team leagues.