Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Geno Smith prove that 2022 wasn't a fluke?
2. Is Kenneth Walker a reliable top-20 RB?
3. Can Zach Charbonnet be a weekly streamer?
4. Which WRs will be weekly fantasy starters?
5. Is any TE draftable?
In hindsight, it's hard to believe Geno Smith and Drew Lock were in a battle last summer for the Seahawks' starting job. But at the time, Smith was still a journeyman underachiever who merely filled in admirably for an ailing Russell Wilson the year before. A former second-round draft pick who wasn't given much of a chance on the partially rebuilding Jets in 2012 and 2013, Smith needed nearly a decade to revive his career.
And "revive" doesn't do it justice. With a 4,282-30-11 passing line and 366 rushing yards, he finished as the overall QB5. He had 2+ TD passes in 13 of 18 games. For context, Wilson has thrown 2+ TD passes in 13 of his last *30* games. And unlike Wilson, Smith had no track record for greatness. He was a 32-year-old with (perhaps) one last shot at becoming a franchise quarterback.
What will he do for an encore? The market believes "not much," or at least not nearly as much as last year's production. His QB15 ADP reflects the belief that he'll be a fringe fantasy starter. Last year, Wilson was the QB16 in 15 contests. Will Smith do better in 2023 than Wilson did in 2022? Almost assuredly. Should we be concerned about his late-regular-season decline? Well, he wrapped up the 2022 campaign against the Niners, Chiefs, Jets, and Rams.
Now equipped with one of the NFC's most talented wideout corps, Smith is a "buy" at his current price. While top-8 could be tough in a season where plenty of underperforming 2022 QBs should rebound, Smith has the tools and playmakers to finish better than his ADP.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III looked like an impending top-5 fantasy RB after last season's breakout. For a franchise that's struggled with running back injuries for years, the rookie second-rounder looked like the team's next great bell cow, and with a hint of high-end passing-game chops (if he only earned more looks).
But then Seattle selected another RB in the second round, Zach Charbonnet, prompting a collective "ugh" from the fantasy universe. Perhaps the decision has its roots in Seattle's tough luck with running backs dating back to the twilight of Marshawn Lynch's career. Supposedly promising options like Robert Turbin, Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and Mike Davis came and went. Rashaad Penny couldn't stay on the field.
The Seahawks are eyeing another postseason berth, and perhaps enough juice to reach the NFC title game versus (possibly) Philly or San Francisco. They needed an insurance policy, but with limited cap space, securing an NFL-ready RB in the draft made sense. So managers have some tough decisions here. Walker (RB17 ADP) is the clear-cut #1, while Charbonnet (RB34) is priced as a fringe weekly streamer. Sure, both might meet/exceed expectations. But it's more likely that one will turn out to be a buy, while the other is a hold or fade.
Since I haven't seen enough of Charbonnet this summer, it's too early to make a half-intelligent assessment. If I were drafting tonight, I'd target Walker at his market price, and if successful, then I'd target Charbonnet a round early to practically ensure I lock in value with one of them. If you're drafting in a month, then they answer should be even clearer.
At wideout, Seattle went big by landing the top rookie WR prospect, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In fact, their decision initiated a run of four consecutive WRs drafted -- the first time that's happened in the opening round in NFL history. He's a big reason why Smith's floor seems relatively high. Despite Tyler Lockett's advancing age (he'll turn 31 in September), the veteran doesn't appear to have lost a step. And DK Metcalf is squarely in his prime.
If Smith plays as well as he did last year, all three of his wideouts could crack 900 yards and six touchdowns, keeping all three in the top-28 conversation. Interestingly, Metcalf's ADP (WR15) is clearly better than Lockett's (WR32) and Smith-Njigba's (WR33). To me, this present a slight buying opportunity for Lockett and the rookie, and at least a slight fade for Metcalf. I see all three as more interchangeable, with Metcalf and Lockett having top-22 upside and Smith-Njigba possessing top-26 upside.
Finally, the Seahawks are running it back with tight ends Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson. They're all more valuable on the field than in fantasy, with Fant leading the way (TE31 ADP), and Dissly (TE49) and Parkinson (TE50) far behind. For the record, Dissly has an insanely high career catch rate, reeling in 102 of 120 targets (85%) the past four campaigns. But it would take a serious injury to Fant or Dissly for one of those two to flirt with fantasy startability.