Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Anthony Richardson be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Jonathan Taylor a reliable top-8 RB?
3. Will Michael Pittman Jr. finish in the top 28?
4. Are Alec Pierce and/or Josh Downs draftable?
5. Are any TEs draftable?
The Colts have been one of the league's biggest underachievers ever since Andrew Luck retired shortly before the start of the 2019 season. That ensuing year, Jacoby Brissett helmed an offense that somehow finished 16th in scoring despite a receiving corps in which TE Jack Doyle co-led the team in targets alongside WR Zach Pascal, while Pascal led the team with a measly 607 receiving yards.
With Nyheim Hines' departure last season and Parris Campbell's departure this offseason, I believe Ashton Dulin and Mo Alie-Cox are the only skill players remaining from that 2019 club. And after a painful few years when they seemed to be one "good" quarterback away from making a playoff run, they finally seem to have the pieces in place.
Assuming he doesn't somehow lose the starting job to Gardner Minshew before Week 1, rookie Anthony Richardson will become this team's sixth opening-week starter in the past six seasons. He'll be the 12th Colts QB to start a game since 2015. And with good fortune, he'll become a face -- or perhaps *the* face -- of a franchise that's had some truly incredible quarterbacks since its inception 70 years ago.
Fantasy-wise, things a little more tepid, at least from my perspective. This is a truly raw talent. It took Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields one-to-two NFL seasons to look like they could elevate their respective teams, and I'd argue both were more polished passers than Richardson, who threw only 393 passes at Florida. His 54.7% completion rate and 24-15 TD-INT ratio were sub-par, to put it kindly. Last year, he threw a pick against Eastern Washington -- essentially a Division I-AA team (FCS). He was stymied by 2-5 Missouri, which limited him to 66 passing yards and an interception on 14 throws. His final game, he managed to throw three for three TDs, but completed only nine of 27 passes.
I'm nit-picking, but not really. Richardson has a great fantasy floor because of his legs. He'll probably finish in the top 5-to-7 in QB rushing yards. If he starts every game, I can't imagine him falling outside the top 22. However, I'd be shocked if he threw for more than 2,800 yards and 20 scores. Too much development needs to happen, and I believe Indy will operate pretty conservatively on offense while he ramps up. As a result, I'm fading him at his QB12 ADP.
But I'm bullish about Jonathan Taylor, who actually ran quite well last year considering how anemic the passing game was. His elite broken-tackle rate was the best of his career. Health and a lack of touchdown opportunities doomed him. He should finish in the top 10 this year, assuming he can play 15+ contests, and assuming the Colts take much better care of the ball after leading the league with 34 turnovers -- the highest tally by an NFL team since 2019.
There are a lot of good RB handcuffs out there. So I wouldn't go overboard trying to land Zack Moss (RB86) if you get Taylor. Indy also has Deon Jackson and rookie Evan Hull. If Taylor gets hurt, I'd bet this would become a committee or hot-hand backfield.
My concerns about Richardson's passing prowess leads to deep concerns about the team's wideouts. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR35), Alec Pierce (WR68), rookie Josh Downs (WR93), and Isaiah McKenzie (WR146) all seem cheap. And yet, questions surrounding Richardson are baked into their market pricing. While Pittman *should* be better than 2022's Allen Lazard (the WR34), we've seen many examples of great receivers becoming fantasy-irrelevant when backup-caliber QBs take over. Although Richardson arguably will be starter-caliber for much of this season, his passing work might not be. I don't want to get stuck banking on Pittman as a weekly fantasy starter.
Mathematically, it's reasonable to expect one or two of the other three WRs to outperform expectations. But should we care of Downs is the WR55, or if McKenzie is the WR70? I mean, yes, we should care on a human level. But for fantasy managers, this wideout corps could be a frustrating ride. Essentially, don't put yourself in a position of *needing* to care.
That leaves the tight end position, where 2022 third-round rookie Jaleni Woods needed most of the season to leapfrog 2021 fourth-rounder Kylen Granson on the depth chart. And this year, they drafted Will Mallory in the fifth round. As mentioned above, Alie-Cox is still there. This helps explain Woods' weak TE32 ADP. He's the best upside play in this entire passing attack -- an ascending tight end with a rookie quarterback who (I believe) will need plenty of help underneath. Woods is a top-24 TE with some pop.