Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Justin Fields take another step forward?
2. Who will be the best fantasy RB?
3. Can DJ Moore be a top-24 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Cole Kmet a top-16 TE?
Six years after the Bears inexplicably (and I wrote about this on this page at the time) gave away four draft picks to move up one spot to select Mitch Trubisky, they turned the tables on the QB-needy Panthers, bringing in a draft haul that should make them fearsome playoff contenders a year sooner than anticipated. Will it occur this year, or will they put it all together in 2024? That's the big question.
But first, a brief look back on 2017, because that's how we got here. The Bears reportedly made the trade knowing (or believing) that other franchises also were inquiring with the Niners about the #2 pick. The tough part for Chicago fans is that if they'd simply held off, they quite possibly still could have secured Trubisky while preserving their draft capital. For example, their #66 pick could have come in quite handy. Alvin Kamara came off the board at #67, while Cooper Kupp was snatched up two picks later.
And yet, by missing out on dramatically improving their team, they were eventually able to reset, and in the past 10 months we've witnessed an incredible transformation. Because remember, a year ago Justin Fields had a QB17 ADP. He was still a raw talent who might or might not become a long-term NFL starter. Now he has the confidence, ability, and surrounding skill players to become elite. Essentially, the Bears are getting really good at key positions at the same time. That's good news if you're a fan, and it's also good news if you're investing in fantasy assets.
But what does the market think of these players? Are there any bargains left? Because Fields is the QB6, just behind Joe Burrow. I think Fields has just as good a shot as Burrow of cracking the top 5. However, the same can be said for eight or nine quarterbacks. Dating back to college, Fields has never been a high-volume passer. If his per-game attempts increase even 30%, he'll still be one of the lowest-volume NFL starters. But that shift could push his ceiling to 400+ points.
If Fields falls to me after five QBs are off the board, I'll be happy. If it's a choice between him or Burrow or Lamar Jackson (QB4), at this stage I'd lean toward Fields.
By contrast, the RBs corps is in flux. David Montgomery is gone. D'Onta Foreman, Travis Homer, and rookie Roschon Johnson have arrived. The surprisingly Khalil Herbert won't sit idly on the sidelines. And that's the problem. We're already faced with the dilemma of a run-friendly quarterback who could cap a starting RB's upside. But four running backs competing for touches?
OK, we can remove Homer from the equation. He's an insurance policy. However, it's anyone's guess whether Foreman, Herbert, or Johnson leads this backfield. Herbert's RB40 ADP suggests he'll be the first man up, while Johnson (RB49) and Foreman (RB52) are close behind. I wouldn't want to burn three draft picks on the same RB corps, but I also wouldn't want to roll the dice on just one. Until/unless this thins out (at which point it'll probably be took late to snag the right one), I'm steering clear.
The WR group is fascinating, and obviously is led by DJ Moore (WR27). He was the WR24 last season with a 63-888-7 receiving line. Unless Fields takes a giant leap in the passing game (3,500+ yards), I don't see how Moore hits the top 18. That means I'm neutral on his market value. If he falls to be at #27, and if I have Fields, then it would be a fairly appealing tandem.
Elsewhere, Darnell Mooney (WR60), Chase Claypool (WR90), and fourth-round rookie Tyler Scott (WR121) will compete for secondary looks. Scott's ADP seems odd. I'd rank him ahead of Claypool. While he might need a couple months to get more involved, in very deep leagues Scott could become a consistent top-60 option down the stretch. I know, not great. However, aside from Moore and possibly Mooney (who I'm lukewarm about, as always), no other receiver has a legitimate shot at reaching that level in 2023.
That leaves Cole Kmet as a surprisingly exciting fantasy play. The former second-round pick is still only 24 years old, and despite what the stats show, he made great strides last year as a more reliable option. I'm not concerned about the drop in targets, though the market seems to be, as his TE17 ADP shows. Kmet should finish in the top 15, meaning in 14-team leagues, I'll probably want to draft him late if I don't land one of my top eight TEs earlier.