Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Mac Jones take a meaningful step forward?
2. Is Rhamondre Stevenson a trustworthy top-10 RB?
3. Can JuJu Smith-Schuster finish in the top 50?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Will Mike Gesicki outperform Hunter Henry, and will it matter?
The two-decade-old aura surrounding the Patriots has rapidly dulled since Tom Brady exited the scene after the 2019 season. In the three years since, this storied franchise has won 25 games and lost 26 -- including a Wild Card round defeat in early 2022. There are reportedly tensions at and near the top of the team's hierarchy, with owner Robert Kraft trusting in Mac Jones far more than head coach Bill Belichick does.
Sound familiar? We witnessed similar buzz a few years ago when it became increasingly clear that a Belichick-Brady divorce could be imminent. Back then, winning was enough to keep egos in check. But the Pats aren't winning, fingers are pointing, and the passing game looks as meek as ever.
Perhaps Jones will put it all together in Year 3. When he was drafted in the first round in 2021, some experts believed he was the best QB coming out of college, despite four quarterbacks getting selected before him. At this point, those experts appear to be half right. Zach Wilson has flopped and Trey Lance hasn't stayed healthy, while Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are poised to enter elite territory.
And rather than surround Jones with a talented receiving corps, Belichick and his cohort have been content (or resigned) to acquire mediocrity. Belichick's track record for identifying WR talent is shockingly poor, and I say that with all respect. Since hitting big with Julian Edelman in the final round in 2009, the Patriots have drafted these 13 WRs, with the round in parentheses:
2010: Taylor Price (3)
2012: Jeremy Ebert (7)
2013: Aaron Dobson (2)
2013: Josh Boyce (4)
2014: Jeremy Gallon (7)
2016: Malcolm Mitchell (4)
2016: Devin Lucien (7)
2018: Braxton Berrios (6)
2019: N'Keal Harry (1)
2021: Tre Nixon (7)
2022: Tyquan Thornton (2)
2023: Kayshon Boutte (6)
2023: Demario Douglas (7)
It's quite possible and/or likely that every other NFL team has drafted at least one starter-caliber WR since 2010. Some teams have drafted many. For New England, Boutte might end up being the best WR decision Belichick's made these past 13 years. More on that in a moment.
For now, Mac Jones (QB28 ADP) is both talented and uninteresting from a fantasy perspective. If he struggles early, Belichick might once again give Bailey Zappe the nod. For Jones to crack the top 20, this offense will need to get a lot more creative (at least they have an offensive coordinator now), Jones will need to remain the starter all season, and at least two of his top three wideouts must exceed expectations. That's a very narrow path to success.
In the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson went from the 1B back early in 2022 to the clear-cut starter. All it took was strong play and an injury to Damien Harris. Stevenson is one of the trendiest fantasy RBs, thanks to a secure spot atop the depth chart, a powerful frame that's generated back-to-back campaigns with elite broken-tackle rates, and massive passing-game usage. His RB9 ADP makes sense. He enjoyed a 222-carry campaign at Cerritos College. He can handle another 300-touch season.
Who's his handcuff? Maybe he's not rostered yet. Pierre Strong Jr. (RB62 ADP), Kevin Harris (RB97), and the aged Ty Montgomery (RB80) are pushing for a few touches per week. Strong deserves to be the favored option at this stage. But a lot could change, and I would caution managers not to reach for Strong if you draft Stevenson, especially while several capable free agent RBs are awaiting their shot.
At wideout, this team jettisoned Jakobi Meyers in favor of JuJu Smith-Schuster. It might be a wash, or something close to it. More interestingly (or concerningly) is the Pats' loyalty to DeVante Parker. While his contract extension is more incentive-laden, he's still on the books and is expected to deliver. For a 30-year-old with a lengthy injury history -- and whose only 800+ yard season came in a prove-it contract year in Miami -- Parker is one of the least reliable WR starters in the league. New England also has to hope Tyquan Thornton makes a significant jump in his second season. We'll see.
Of the three, Smith-Schuster (WR56 ADP) is the best value play. Parker (WR82) or Thornton (WR78) should exceed expectations, though that doesn't mean they're remotely draftable. For context, teammate Kendrick Bourne was the WR81 last year with a 35-434-1 receiving line. There's nothing glamorous about these ADPs. And if the Patriots fall out of playoff contention, we could see the rookie Boutte get some run as the franchise looks to regroup in a tough division ahead of 2024.
Finally, the Pats have paired Hunter Henry (TE33 ADP) with Mike Gesicki (TE23). I don't understand the disparity. If you do, please speak up. Both guys could be used often in two-TE sets, and in a light WR group, these two veterans could push into the top 20, provided Jones takes a step forward. But again, this is where several 50/50 conditions need to be met. And I don't like drafting guys based on the *possibility* that several 50/50 conditions will be met. Although Henry is the better bargain, I don't see how either one finishes in the top 18, unless one misses considerable time.