Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Daniel Jones be a top-12 QB?
2. Is Saquon Barkley a trustworthy first-round pick?
3. Who's the best RB handcuff to roster?
4. Who's the best WR to roster?
5. Is Darren Waller a reliable top-7 TE?
Entering last season, the Giants' supposed franchise QB and supposed franchise RB were (supposedly) playing out the final year of their rookie contracts before presumably moving elsewhere. Their vastly overpaid #1 WR was informed (publicly) that he'd have to earn a role. The team was trying to trade #5 WR Darius Slayton. Starting TE Evan Engram was long gone. After finishing 4-13 the year before, this was a team in transition.
But then, much of what was *supposed* to happen didn't, while much of what was *supposed* to elude them came to fruition. Backed by a largely rag-tag receiving corps, a quarterback the team had all but abandoned, and an often-injured running back whose career had been hovering near "bust" status, the Giants played out of their minds.
For context, journeyman Richie James had one of the highest WR catch rates in league history, while Bills cast-off Isaiah Hodgins didn't drop a pass while contributing a blistering 123.3 QB rating on targets.
This was a well-coached, well-executing team with little room for error. And perhaps most notably, Daniel Jones became a legitimate franchise-elevating quarterback after three middling-to-dismal campaigns. Head coach Brian Daboll turned him loose on the ground, and Jones came through. 39% of his fantasy points came on the ground. Amazingly, only 4% of his fantasy points came on passes to Saquon Barkley.
That's a lot to take in, at least for me. This was a methodical, run-centric offense. They had the league's eighth-fewest pass attempts, which would have been less if not for backup Davis Webb's 40 throws in Week 18 (pushing them past the 49ers and Saints). And this year they arguably have a meaningfully improved receiving corps, likely leading to more throws. What's not to love about Jones?
Well, his QB13 ADP concerns me. He's ahead of guys like Geno Smith, Jared Goff, and yes, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. One of my favorite bargains, Jordan Love, looms at QB21, a little ahead of Brock Purdy. The key question here is whether Jones is a reliable top-14 QB, or if he played the best football of his life last season, with almost nowhere to go but down.
My take is that it largely comes down to Barkley's health and contract status. Let's table the former for now. The latter issue is serious. Barkley wants and deserves a long-term contract. The Giants want (and arguably deserve) to approach an extension more conservatively, because paying Barkley what he deserves isn't necessarily in the franchise's best interest. He had 377 touches last year (including the playoffs).
Let's zoom in on this. New York started 7-2, at which point Barkley had 198 carries and 29 receptions. He was on pace for a whopping 429 regular-season touches, plus perhaps 30 to 50 more in the postseason. So what happened? The Giants eased up on his workload the next four games. The team went 0-3-1 during that stretch, while Barkley averaged less than 2.9 yards per carry. Facing must-win territory, they upped his usage a bit down the stretch, as well as in the playoffs, and magically he returned to form.
I've hammered the issues surrounding overworked RBs for years. Barkley probably cannot be trusted to crack 300 touches even if he suits up Week 1. While he was an amazing story in 2022, his RB5 ADP seems moderately insane. Instead, I'd urge managers to secure rookie Eric Gray (RB76) at the end of the draft -- or a bit sooner if a savvy opponent drafts Barkley. I believe this team drafted Gray because they need an immediate replacement for Barkley if necessary. The fifth-round pick was the 11th RB off the board in this year's draft, and also happens to be the oldest at age 24, which likely explains why other teams passed on him a bit earlier. While he realistically might not pan out, the Giants have only Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell remaining in this backfield. As a three-down-caliber back, Gray has the highest ceiling among Giants backups.
So is Gray the only guy I'd reach for on this team? Yeah, it's looking that way. Assuming Jones remains a relatively low-volume passer (perhaps a stretch, but I believe this offense will remain pretty conservative through the air), I don't see how he'll feed more than two receivers per game. 2022 second-round rookie Wan'Dale Robinson has room to grow, and both Hodgins and Slayton are returning. The team added the perennially underrated, injury-plagued Parris Campbell and drafted the high-flying Jalin Hyatt in the third round. Oh, and Sterling Shepard will get his share of looks anytime he's healthy enough to take the field. Complicating things is the addition of Darren Waller, the dynamic TE who could realistically lead New York in targets per contest.
Even if Jones throws for 4,000 yards (not realistic in my opinion), with 3,500 going to his receivers, how will seven guys share the load? Yes, there will be a thinning-out process. Hyatt might be a two-to-three target option while he acclimates to the league, and the 30-year-old Shepard might not make it past October.
But I honestly have no idea which WRs will lead this corps. And apparently, neither does the market. Hodgins has the "best" ADP (WR71), followed by Campbell (WR77), Slayton (WR83), Hyatt (WR84), Robinson (WR86), and Shepard (WR110). No WRs ranked in the top 75. I've never seen this before. It's an unusually tough fantasy situation.
Someone almost surely will crack the top 70. Only five times since 2002 has a team *not* had at least one top-70 WR (most recently the Giants in 2021). And yet, that's small consolation for managers who don't care about top 70 or even top 60. To be a real asset, we need to find a top-45 or even top-40 guy. Given the nature of this offense and the cluttered WR group, I'm avoiding all of them.
As for Waller, I urged readers to fade him at his TE5 ADP, pointing to his higher-than-normal injury risk based on historical data regarding injury history and age. Clearly, New York's going all in on a deep playoff run, and Waller was the most talented tight end available. I get it. But now he's an even bigger risk in a more crowded offense than he faced in Vegas. He'll turn 31 in Week 2, and he's missed 14 games the past two seasons. He endured a career-high drop rate last year and a career-low 2.9 yards after the catch.
His current TE7 ADP assumes he'll remain a weekly fantasy starter. I see it differently, with the expectation that he'll hit nicely four to six times, and then be unstartable other weeks. It's too steep a price to pay.