Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Najee Harris remain a weekly must-start RB?
2. Will Jaylen Warren finish in the top 36?
3. Is Diontae Johnson a top-30 WR?
4. Is George Pickens a top-30 WR?
5. Can Pat Freiermuth once again be a top-8 TE?
Kenny Pickett's first NFL start last season had two divergent storylines. One showed up front-and-center in the box score -- a brutal 38-3 loss to the Bills in which the rookie QB threw his fourth interception (after tossing three picks the week before in relief of Mitch Trubisky). Pickett attempted 52 passes, but apparently had little to show for it.
However, the other storyline suggested something much different. On six of Pittsburgh's 11 drives, they moved the ball inside Buffalo's 30-yard line. In a tough environment -- and again, in his professional debut -- Pickett and his youthful receiving corps did quite well. In the backfield, Najee Harris collected only 20 yards on 11 carries. Jaylen Warren did better, but on only five carries.
This was a microcosm of Pickett's rookie campaign. Despite being the first QB drafted in 2022, he often struggled. But when he thrived, it rarely translated into scores. In fact, Pittsburgh's red-zone TD percentage was its lowest since 2019 -- when QBs Mason Rudolph (eight starts) and Devlin Hodges (six starts) helmed the passing attack.
No doubt, his QB22 ADP suggests he'll continue to struggle. And given how many quarterbacks could realistically finish in the top 16, I'm not prepared to draft Pickett ahead of his ADP. But this is an offense on the rise. How quickly it rises will determine whether Pickett's a weekly starter in two-QB leagues. I'm comfortable drafting him at his market value, though with the hope that he falls below Kyler Murray (QB23), Bryce Young (QB24), and Brock Purdy (QB25) to help ensure he's a bargain.
As strange as it might sound, one of the biggest wild card to Pickett's success might be his starting running back. After earning 94 targets as a 2021 rookie, Harris saw only 53 looks last season. Warren arguably looked better on the ground and through the air. But I still stubbornly believe we haven't seen the best of Harris, regardless of the preseason buzz pointing to a larger role for Warren.
This team cannot afford another sub-4.0 yards-per-carry year from Harris. But the former first-rounder will run behind a seemingly still improving offensive line. The Steelers added OL Broderick Jones in the opening round of this year's draft. And it should be noted that Harris's 2.1 yards-before-contact average last year was the fourth-lowest among the 25 leading RB rushers, while his broken-tackle rate ranked 8th-best in this same group.
The risk with Harris (RB12 ADP) is that he might lose his bell cow status as soon as Week 1. That necessitates a fade for me. But if he drops to RB15 or worse, then as long as he's still #1 on the depth chart, I'd invest in him based on the likelihood that he'll enjoy his most efficient campaign yet. And of course, drafting him would make it essential to select Warren at his RB44 ADP. My hunch is that by mid-August, their ADP gap will narrow from 32 spots to around 24-26 (e.g. Harris at around RB14, and Warren at around RB38-40).
At wideout, Diontae Johnson had a rare 147-target, zero-TD season. Interestingly, he tied for 13th in red-zone targets (16), comfortably ahead of George Pickens' seven. But inside the 10-yard line, these two were tied with four targets apiece. I haven't done the research, but am assuming Johnson drew a lot more opposing #1 cornerbacks, resulting in tougher coverage that a rookie like Pickett couldn't overcome. It would help explain Pickett's anemic 58.8 QB rating when targeting Johnson, versus a 109.3 rating when targeting Pickens.
As it stands, Pickens (WR40 ADP) is the clear value play over Johnson (WR28). I like both comparably and fully expect their ADP gap to narrow in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Allen Robinson (WR95) has been a fantasy disaster the past two seasons. I was obviously completely wrong to push him last summer, and this year he's more likely to be a spoiler (capping Johnson's and/or Pickens' ceiling) than actually becoming fantasy-viable, including in the red zone. For example, ;ast year he tied for the second-most WR targets inside the 10, despite missing seven contests. There's danger here if Robinson becomes one of this team's top-four red-zone threats.
And at tight end, the age of Pat Freiermuth might be drawing to a close. Well, that's not exactly right. But I was shocked to see Pittsburgh invest a third-round pick on another TE, Darnell Washington. The 6'7", 264-pound rookie appears to be NFL-ready. Will we see more two-TE sets? The good news is that Washington remains a fairly raw prospect, meaning Freiermuth should be the clear-cut #1 for at least one more year.
Still, after finishing #5 in TE targets per game in 2022, Freiermuth doesn't have much room to grow in the reception and yardage departments. While his TE10 ADP might be sensible, he'll need a lot more scores to be worth grabbing. There are at least a dozen TEs below him who could easily match or exceed his touchdown total. I don't feel any urgency selecting him at his current price, believing he'll be a fringe fantasy starter on balance.