Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Desmond Ridder a top-20 QB?
2. Can Bijan Robinson meet lofty expectations?
3. Is Drake London a top-20 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Will Kyle Pitts break out?
The Falcons' offense might be one of the NFC's best this season. Or, they still might be a year or two away. I lean toward the former scenario, largely because Desmond Ridder probably is the most undervalued fantasy QB, period. His ridiculous QB30 ADP assumes he'll be benched for Taylor Heinicke, and/or that he'll be the league's worst starter.
Let's break this down a bit. Atlanta stuck with Marcus Mariota last season, leaving their rookie -- the second QB taken in last year's draft -- manning the clipboard until the final four games. And when he finally took the helm of this offense, Ridder didn't have Kyle Pitts. His debut was a road game against an elite pass D. Of course he was going to struggle.
The dual-threat quarterback (2,180 college rushing yards) has three elite-upside players at his disposal, as well as one of the NFL's easiest schedules. For context, Mariota was last year's overall QB20 while playing only 13 games. That's Ridder's realistic floor. He should finish in the top 16, making him the biggest QB steal.
In the backfield, all eyes are on Bijan Robinson, one of the best RB prospects in ages. My biggest question is how much this team works him. His RB3 ADP assumes the answer will be "a lot." But with Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Caleb Huntley still part of this corps -- all very capable running backs, to say the least -- I wonder if Robinson will finish closer to 250 touches than 325. Atlanta's building something special. There's no incentive to run Robinson into the ground in Year 1.
Of course, that doesn't mean the Falcons will manage his workload. So it comes down to whether you want to invest heavily in the rookie, in the belief that he'll be a do-it-all option. I wish he'd drop to around RB6. As it stands, I'm torn on his current ADP, because there aren't a lot of reliable top-8 RBs. And naturally, if you draft him, be prepared to reach a couple rounds early for Allgeier (RB47 / overall 147).
By contract, I'm excited to invest in Drake London (WR23). This team did little to upgrade its receiving corps in the offseason. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Mack Hollins (WR104) projects as the No. 2 WR, while Tampa Bay cast-off and former sixth-rounder Scotty Miller (WR167) projects as the No. 3. If this team gets off to a good start, I expect them to acquire a starter-caliber WR before the trade deadline. Regardless, this is an extraordinarily top-heavy WR group. I'm eyeing London as a top-20 WR, while Hollins should be a comfortable bargain while finishing in the top 55.
Finally, the enigmatic Kyle Pitts (TE5 ADP), who could be the TE1 in a couple years, if not sooner. How much will Ridder and the Falcons look his way? Well, maybe that's not the right question. He's averaged 6.3 looks per game for his career. Sure, that could improve to around 7 or 7.5. The biggest issue has been his team's QB play, starting with a rapidly declining Matt Ryan, and culminating with Mariota. Pitts' catch rate was an unconscionably bad 47.5% last season. He can't get any worse.
So is he worth his ADP, which is currently just ahead of Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, and Evan Engram? There are two answers. First, only about seven or eight TEs realistically could finish in the top 3. Pitts is one of them if things break right. Second, who would you draft instead at around his overall 72 ADP? At 73-75 are Kadarius Toney, Jordan Addison, and George Pickens. I'd rather lock in an elite-upside talent like Pitts than tack on a wideout who *hopefully* will be a weekly fantasy starter.