Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Russell Wilson return to relevance?
2. Can Javonte Williams be a top-20 RB?
3. Is Jerry Jeudy a top-24 WR?
4. Will Courtland Sutton be a top-32 WR?
5. Is Greg Dulcich a top-12 TE?
I have big misses every year. Last season, I went all in on the Broncos. So . . . yeah.
After claiming Russell Wilson was one of the best QB bargains, and after drafting Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon ("a great hedge!"), and after insisting Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy would shine, I accepted defeat and went back to the drawing board.
What happened? A few things, including a couple of season-ending injuries, Gordon's sudden free-fall, and a (surprisingly?) ineffective offensive scheme. That's all correctible.
More notably, I've found that nearly every dual-threat QB in NFL history has endured massive statistical declines beginning around the ages of 30 to 32. While there are exceptions, the data is pretty compelling. And with Russell Wilson turning 35 in November, and with his body (perhaps) breaking down, he can no longer be trusted in the running game. Maybe he'll hit 200 yards this season. But the key is that nearly all of his fantasy production will need to come through the air.
Does that mean we throw in the towel? It depends where he's ranked. His QB18 ADP is pretty affordable, and with a new legendary head coach (Sean Payton) and offensive coordinator (former Chargers OC Joe Lombardi) and a prohibitively expensive long-term contract, Wilson is in nothing-to-lose mode. Denver's stuck with him. They need to find a way to make it work. I believe Wilson will throw the most passes of his career, translating into top-18 numbers. While massive upside seems almost unfathomable, he has a high enough floor to be "safe" at his current price point.
In the backfield, after getting knocked out for the year in Week 4, Javonte Williams claims he'll be ready to roll when the season kicks off, at which point he'll be nearly one year removed from his ACL, LCL, and PLC tears. That's a lot of tears. This team added Samaje Perine as an insurance policy. I have no problem investing in Williams at his RB30 ADP, which should improve to the top 24 if he has no setbacks. Perine (RB34) has nowhere to go but down *unless* Williams has a setback, making Perine an expensive (and unfortunately necessary) insurance policy.
At wideout, Denver dangled Jeudy (WR20 ADP) this offseason while drafting Marvin Mims Jr. (WR72) late in the second round. It's currently a relatively cluttered corps with Sutton (WR48) and the perennially underrated Tim Patrick (WR78) also in the fold. Perhaps the Broncos are a bit shellshocked after losing Patrick last preseason, forcing Kendall Hinton and the overmatched K.J. Hamler into larger roles. Or maybe they're still trying to unload Jeudy, with the understanding that Mims might profile more as a slot receiver at the professional level.
Regardless, the market seems to love Jeudy, while Sutton is a distant second, and Patrick and Mims are undraftable. I see it differently, viewing Jeudy and Sutton as more interchangeable. And if the market believes Jeudy will be on the move, then Mims should be valued much better as his most logical replacement.
For now, Sutton is my favorite fantasy buy in this corps. Last year he was the overall WR43 in 15 games. That should be his floor, assuming (as I believe) Wilson will throw considerably more.
And remember Albert Okwuegbunam? He was a trendy sleeper last summer before plummeting down the tight end depth chart. Greg Dulcich became one of the biggest fantasy TE surprises, and now his TE ADP is 14. He's the real deal -- a 2022 third-round draft pick who could have some more big games in 2023. However, unlike last season, he'll face a lot more receiver competition. Will a potentially higher-volume Wilson offset this competition? That's the big question. I'm slightly fading Dulcich, in the belief that his ceiling probably isn't higher than 11 or 12, and I'm not excited to draft a TE who might not be a top-5 offensive option.