Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Matthew Stafford be a top-16 QB?
2. Will Cam Akers be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Cooper Kupp a trustworthy elite WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Tyler Higbee comfortably draftable?
After going all in on a successful Super Bowl run two seasons ago, the Rams remain surprisingly "good" if their key guys stay healthy. At the same time, we shouldn't be surprised if last year's breakdown extends into 2023.
Last summer, I shared concerns on this page about Matthew Stafford -- specifically, his sore elbow. He threw a career-high 741 passes (including the playoffs) the year before and was already top-14 in career pass regular-season attempts, despite being "only" 34 years old. Another injury-free campaign seemed out of the question. And with not reliable backup, the Rams' offense surely would tank if Stafford missed time.
The same risks exist heading into this season. In fact, the risks might be greater. This franchise has a tough road ahead in the increasingly competitive NFC, where a wild card spot could be out of reach. Three of their first five matchups are against the 49ers, Bengals, and Eagles. Their other two opening games are on the road versus the Seahawks and Colts. Later on, they'll face the Cowboys, Giants, and Ravens on the road.
If you believe this team can finish with a winning record, you're far more bullish than me. And this is the key, because Stafford's under contract through the 2026 season, and this franchise doesn't have a remotely easy "out" these next three years due to massive dead-cap hits if they cut him.
If this season is essentially over as the trade deadline approaches, we could see this team blow up what they can and then focus on a massive rebuild (around Stafford) in the hope of making another big playoff push in 2025 and/or 2026. As a result, I don't anticipate Stafford playing all 17 games. Not even close. At best, he'll be an occasional streamer in a league with 16-to-20 higher-floor / higher-ceiling options. I have no intention of drafting him, even in 14-team leagues.
The running back situation is even murkier, if that's possible. Cam Akers was one of my favorite dynasty RBs when the Rams drafted him in the second round in 2020. A torn Achilles sidelined him for almost all of his 2021 campaign, and he didn't look right for most of last season. In fact, he averaged only 2.7 yards per carry in his first six outings while earning merely two catches on five targets.
But L.A. stuck with him (what choice did they have), and he finally delivered on his potential while closing out the season with three consecutive 100+ rushing-yard performances. Does this mean he's good to go? Who knows. But what's clear is that he's entering the final year of his rookie contract. The Rams will probably work him as much as needed. There's no obvious handcuff, especially when the Rams recently signed the post-prime Sony Michel, which says a lot about this team's confidence in Kyren Williams and rookie Zach Evans. I'm moderately comfortably rolling the dice on Akers at his RB21 ADP, on the assumption he'll be the unquestioned bell cow.
As for wideouts, there's Cooper Kupp and everyone else. And here's where things get especially tricky. Full disclosure: I strongly believe Kupp will be playing in a different uniform by midseason. He's now 30 years old and has endured two season-ending injuries in the last five years. The Rams owe him buckets of money until he's 33, at which point (realistically) he won't be worth what they'll be paying him.
So what does a franchise with the faintest shot at postseason run do with their best asset, who happens to be one of the best WRs in the game? Do they hold onto him and hope he helps lead them to glory in 2025 and/or 2026, knowing that his cap hit will limit their ability to secure much-needed surrounding talent? Or do they sell high as part of the previously mentioned rebuild strategy?
For the second straight year, I'm fading Kupp, though this time it's for a very different reason. Since I'm betting on the Rams trading Kupp to a Super Bowl contender, his days as a monster-target option are nearing an end. Can he still be a top-12 WR on, say, the Bears or Cowboys or Lions or Jets -- teams with the cap space to playoff-run aspirations to go all in? Absolutely. But his WR3 ADP seems like a longshot.
This would make Van Jefferson (WR62 ADP) the best value play in the Rams' receiving corps. While Puka Nacua (WR94) and Tutu Atwell (WR105) could make noise (and my money's on Atwell to continue improving), Jefferson offers the highest upside while entering the final year of his rookie contract. A former second-round pick, Jefferson is far better than last year's abridged numbers suggest. All of his catches came on throws from Baker Mayfield, John Wolford, and Bryce Perkins. Give him even 10 games with Stafford -- and perhaps a handful with Kupp out of the picture -- and Jefferson should easily crack the top 50.
Finally, who was the most-targeted Ram last year? Yes, Tyler Higbee. He's reliable, but not flashy, which points to his reasonable TE15 ADP. Still, I want more pop out of a starting fantasy TE -- even a streamer like him. Based on ADP, guys like Dawson Knox, Luke Musgrave, and Michael Mayer will be sitting on most waiver wires entering Week 1. I'd be hard-pressed to recommend drafting Higbee unless I'm in a 16-team league and 18 TEs are off the board.