Five Biggest Questions
1. Will C.J. Stroud be a top-16 QB?
2. Can Dameon Pierce thrive alongside Devin Singletary?
3. Will John Metchie III shine in his first season?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Can Dalton Schultz be a top-12 TE?
Happy July 4th for those who celebrate. Let's jump right in for a team on the rise, because they have nowhere to go but up.
Who doesn't love bold NFL draft decisions? The Texans were among the boldest this year, and for all the right reasons. They're not trying to mount a five-year rebuild that will hopefully net them a playoff appearance later this decade. Instead, in the post-Deshaun-Watson era, they've moved fairly quickly to make a legitimate play as the AFC South's second-best team.
Much hinges on the development of C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 pick in this year's draft, as well the impact of an ascending defense anchored by two successive No. 3 picks: CB Derek Stingley Jr. last year, followed by Will Anderson Jr. this year (resulting from a brilliant draft-day trade with the Cardinals). This has the makings of a surprisingly effective and balanced team.
By most accounts, Stroud is NFL-ready. He has a youthful receiving corps and solid backfield. He might end up having the best career of any incoming rookie quarterback. And in fantasy, one of the biggest questions is whether he'll run the ball more. For now, the expectation should be "no." That's not a key part of his game, at least not yet, and might never be. But it speaks to his Year 1 ceiling. As a pocket passer in an objective sub-par passing attack, his chances of cracking the top 16 are slim. He'll probably be fun to watch and more valuable on the field this season than in fantasy.
The backfield is tougher to gauge. Dameon Pierce was the seventh RB drafted last year -- an early fourth-round pick who'd never earned more than 106 carries in a college campaign. The Texans were forced to make him their bell cow last season, when he pulled off one of the most impressive RB rookie campaigns in years. Why? Because the anemic passing game made this one of the NFL's most predictable offenses. The key was to stop Pierce. And yet he had one of the league's best broken-tackle rates while frequently carrying this offense on his back.
But the team wisely added another RB this offseason: Devin Singletary. This is obviously concerning for Pierce's upside. However, I still believe this is in the best interest of Pierce's longevity. He's better suited as a 12-to-14-touch option at most, with Singletary mixing in the rest. Pierce still has the clear edge and probably will be utilized more near the goal line. 11 of his 13 rushing scores in his final collegiate campaign came from inside the seven-yard line, and nine of those TDs were from three yards or less. Four of his five scores last year also came from three yards away or less. Still, it's currently a dicey situation if you want a weekly starter.
At wideout, John Metchie III is my favorite to serve as the No. 1 WR -- that is, assuming he's healthy after missing his entire rookie season. Nathaniel "Tank" Dell could work his way into a top-two role. The early third-round pick was a must-get, as Stroud needs surrounding talent to expedite his development. I'm actually somewhat down on the ceiling-capped Nico Collins, unless Metchie has a setback. While fundamentally sound, Collins probably won't push past 750 yards in this receiving corps. Metchie is the better ceiling play, and Dell is the wild card.
Elsewhere, Robert Woods will try to revive his career, Noah Brown is a depth piece, and rookie sixth-rounder Xavier Hutchinson is a middling development project with little hope of joining any redraft rosters this year. Among these guys, clearly Woods has the most fantasy value. But he's now 31 years old and is better suited as a veteran presence on an incredibly young team, helmed by a very green quarterback. Don't be surprised if Woods is Stroud's favorite target in Week 1, his second-favorite in Weeks 2 and 3, and then his third- or fourth-favorite forever after.
And at tight end, I love the Texans' decision to acquire Dalton Schultz. He's a true playmaking TE with an eye for the end zone. Despite missing two games and most of a third last season, he tied for third in TE red-zone targets. Knowing they needed to supply their impending QB draft pick with more veteran skill players, they landed a guy who should have a sustained role across the field. His current TE13 ADP seems more like a floor than a ceiling.