And here we are, the final day of the regular season. Will sign off tomorrow. For today, 14 big games.
First, in terms of drama, last night's Jaguars-Titans exceeded even the loftiest espectations. I whiffed on Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones. Had Lawrence not thrown wildly with Jones wide open in the end zone, things would have turned out much differently. But no excuses. Lawrence didn't look as sharp as I thought he would.
But as expected, the Jags stacked the box and kept Derrick Henry from beating them, instead forcing Joshua Dobbs to win through the air. And that turned out to be the difference late in the fourth quarter.
Also, I need to point out that I picked the Titans this summer to not win the AFC South, and then reminded readers when they were 7-3. Admittedly, I thought the Colts would rebound, thinking Jacksonville was still a year away. But the point is, one-dimensional offenses don't usually sustain success, especially when their schedules get tougher.
In the earlier game, also as expected, the Chiefs got Ronald Jones and Justin Watson involved, and as I shared on PFN's website yesterday morning, Kadarius Toney was a great bet to get going--because the Chiefs will need him in the postseason.
I'm shocked Josh Jacobs played as much as he did, and then learned his father nearly died and wanted to see his son play. So maybe that was a key factor in Jacobs suiting up. Regardless, once again, the final week of the season is largely a crapshoot, except when both teams have something to play for.
And that brings us to today. The Bills-Patriots and Dolphins-Jets will be fierce. While New York has nothing to play for, no doubt they want to knock Miami out of playoff contention (assuming Buffalo wins).
There will surely be a lot of scoreboard watching. If the Patriots or Dolphins somehow lead big in the fourth quarter, will the Steelers ease their starters out a bit early? Will Christian McCaffrey take an early seat--because he'll be invaluable in the postseason--if the Eagles are beating the Giants by 14+ at halftime?
Seeding is everything and nothing. Depends on the team and their circumstances. I've long believed that teams limping into the postseason will put players' health before seeding. Doesn't mean we should overthink it. But if you need an RB flier, Kenneth Gainwell and Jordan Mason are intriguing.
For Sunday Night Football, the Lions will be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier. That would alter the complexion of that game. Regardless, with Aaron Rodgers averaging his fewest pass attempts since 2010, and facing a Detroit defense yielding the second most yards per carry, I'm all in on 28+ combined fantasy points for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They have the talent, experience, and matchup to step up when it matters most.
Althought I have a soft spot for the frequently maligned Jared Goff (more on that tomorrow), he's often struggled against good pass defenses. And "struggled" might be kind. I don't trust him or Amon-Ra St. Brown for more than 12 points each.
Good luck today. See you tomorrow for some final thoughts.
First, in terms of drama, last night's Jaguars-Titans exceeded even the loftiest espectations. I whiffed on Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones. Had Lawrence not thrown wildly with Jones wide open in the end zone, things would have turned out much differently. But no excuses. Lawrence didn't look as sharp as I thought he would.
But as expected, the Jags stacked the box and kept Derrick Henry from beating them, instead forcing Joshua Dobbs to win through the air. And that turned out to be the difference late in the fourth quarter.
Also, I need to point out that I picked the Titans this summer to not win the AFC South, and then reminded readers when they were 7-3. Admittedly, I thought the Colts would rebound, thinking Jacksonville was still a year away. But the point is, one-dimensional offenses don't usually sustain success, especially when their schedules get tougher.
In the earlier game, also as expected, the Chiefs got Ronald Jones and Justin Watson involved, and as I shared on PFN's website yesterday morning, Kadarius Toney was a great bet to get going--because the Chiefs will need him in the postseason.
I'm shocked Josh Jacobs played as much as he did, and then learned his father nearly died and wanted to see his son play. So maybe that was a key factor in Jacobs suiting up. Regardless, once again, the final week of the season is largely a crapshoot, except when both teams have something to play for.
And that brings us to today. The Bills-Patriots and Dolphins-Jets will be fierce. While New York has nothing to play for, no doubt they want to knock Miami out of playoff contention (assuming Buffalo wins).
There will surely be a lot of scoreboard watching. If the Patriots or Dolphins somehow lead big in the fourth quarter, will the Steelers ease their starters out a bit early? Will Christian McCaffrey take an early seat--because he'll be invaluable in the postseason--if the Eagles are beating the Giants by 14+ at halftime?
Seeding is everything and nothing. Depends on the team and their circumstances. I've long believed that teams limping into the postseason will put players' health before seeding. Doesn't mean we should overthink it. But if you need an RB flier, Kenneth Gainwell and Jordan Mason are intriguing.
For Sunday Night Football, the Lions will be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier. That would alter the complexion of that game. Regardless, with Aaron Rodgers averaging his fewest pass attempts since 2010, and facing a Detroit defense yielding the second most yards per carry, I'm all in on 28+ combined fantasy points for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They have the talent, experience, and matchup to step up when it matters most.
Althought I have a soft spot for the frequently maligned Jared Goff (more on that tomorrow), he's often struggled against good pass defenses. And "struggled" might be kind. I don't trust him or Amon-Ra St. Brown for more than 12 points each.
Good luck today. See you tomorrow for some final thoughts.